Premier League·Regular Season - 27·
Premier League·Regular Season - 27·Predicted match statistics
Goals
14%
19%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction0.912.233.14safe0.00–1.881.37–3.081.32–4.96safer0.00–2.131.15–3.310.84–5.44
Shots on target
81%
homeawaytotalprediction3.226.469.68safe1.35–5.084.72–8.216.07–13.28safer0.86–5.574.25–8.675.12–14.24
Total shots
89%
homeawaytotalprediction9.8416.7026.53safe5.91–13.7613.13–20.2619.05–34.02safer4.82–14.8512.17–21.2217.00–36.07
Shots in box
84%
homeawaytotalprediction6.5711.2217.78safe3.63–9.518.54–13.9012.16–23.41safer2.80–10.347.80–14.6410.59–24.98
Blocked shots
77%
homeawaytotalprediction2.485.007.48safe0.59–4.363.35–6.663.94–11.01safer0.05–4.902.86–7.152.91–12.05
Corners
13%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction3.566.5110.07safe1.34–5.774.51–8.515.85–14.28safer0.77–6.343.98–9.044.75–15.39
Possession %
100%
homeawayprediction25.9874.79safe19.19–32.7768.01–81.58safer17.52–34.4466.34–83.25
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction265719983safe198–332652–785850–1117safer179–350635–803814–1153
Pass accuracy %
100%
homeawayprediction61.7285.75safe57.69–65.7481.43–90.08safer56.39–67.0480.12–91.39
Fouls
68%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction11.548.8720.41safe8.70–14.375.93–11.8214.63–26.19safer7.94–15.135.18–12.5713.12–27.70
Offsides
53%
19%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction2.591.904.49safe1.43–3.750.80–2.992.24–6.75safer1.13–4.060.52–3.281.65–7.33
Yellow cards
54%
20%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction2.181.473.66safe1.13–3.230.34–2.601.48–5.84safer0.87–3.500.05–2.890.92–6.39
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.060.15safe0.00–0.250.00–0.250.00–0.50safer0.00–0.400.00–0.380.00–0.79
GK saves
67%
13%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction3.932.306.23safe2.49–5.360.74–3.863.23–9.22safer2.10–5.750.32–4.282.42–10.03
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.91 0.00–1.88 0.00–2.13 | 2.23 1.37–3.08 1.15–3.31 | 3.14 1.32–4.96 0.84–5.44 | 14% 19% 67% |
| Shots on target | 3.22 1.35–5.08 0.86–5.57 | 6.46 4.72–8.21 4.25–8.67 | 9.68 6.07–13.28 5.12–14.24 | 81% |
| Total shots | 9.84 5.91–13.76 4.82–14.85 | 16.70 13.13–20.26 12.17–21.22 | 26.53 19.05–34.02 17.00–36.07 | 89% |
| Shots in box | 6.57 3.63–9.51 2.80–10.34 | 11.22 8.54–13.90 7.80–14.64 | 17.78 12.16–23.41 10.59–24.98 | 84% |
| Blocked shots | 2.48 0.59–4.36 0.05–4.90 | 5.00 3.35–6.66 2.86–7.15 | 7.48 3.94–11.01 2.91–12.05 | 77% |
| Corners | 3.56 1.34–5.77 0.77–6.34 | 6.51 4.51–8.51 3.98–9.04 | 10.07 5.85–14.28 4.75–15.39 | 13% 78% |
| Possession % | 25.98 19.19–32.77 17.52–34.44 | 74.79 68.01–81.58 66.34–83.25 | — | 100% |
| Passes | 265 198–332 179–350 | 719 652–785 635–803 | 983 850–1117 814–1153 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 61.72 57.69–65.74 56.39–67.04 | 85.75 81.43–90.08 80.12–91.39 | — | 100% |
| Fouls | 11.54 8.70–14.37 7.94–15.13 | 8.87 5.93–11.82 5.18–12.57 | 20.41 14.63–26.19 13.12–27.70 | 68% 24% |
| Offsides | 2.59 1.43–3.75 1.13–4.06 | 1.90 0.80–2.99 0.52–3.28 | 4.49 2.24–6.75 1.65–7.33 | 53% 19% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 2.18 1.13–3.23 0.87–3.50 | 1.47 0.34–2.60 0.05–2.89 | 3.66 1.48–5.84 0.92–6.39 | 54% 20% 26% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.38 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.93 2.49–5.36 2.10–5.75 | 2.30 0.74–3.86 0.32–4.28 | 6.23 3.23–9.22 2.42–10.03 | 67% 13% 19% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.