Predicted match statistics
Goals
24%
22%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.251.973.22safe0.29–2.221.11–2.821.40–5.05safer0.04–2.470.89–3.050.92–5.53
Shots on target
26%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction4.155.649.79safe2.29–6.013.90–7.386.18–13.39safer1.80–6.503.43–7.855.23–14.35
Total shots
24%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0915.2227.31safe8.16–16.0111.66–18.7819.82–34.80safer7.07–17.1010.70–19.7417.77–36.85
Shots in box
27%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction8.2610.4718.73safe5.32–11.207.79–13.1513.10–24.35safer4.49–12.037.05–13.8811.54–25.92
Blocked shots
28%
13%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction3.524.668.18safe1.64–5.403.01–6.324.65–11.72safer1.09–5.942.52–6.813.61–12.75
Corners
37%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.555.049.59safe2.34–6.763.04–7.045.38–13.80safer1.76–7.342.51–7.574.27–14.91
Possession %
15%
82%
homeawayprediction41.8758.12safe35.08–48.6651.34–64.91safer33.41–50.3349.67–66.58
Passes
88%
homeawaytotalprediction388528915safe320–455461–594782–1049safer302–473444–612746–1085
Pass accuracy %
95%
homeawayprediction67.4580.41safe63.42–71.4876.08–84.73safer62.13–72.7774.77–86.04
Fouls
32%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8812.6423.52safe8.05–13.729.69–15.5817.74–29.30safer7.29–14.488.94–16.3316.24–30.81
Offsides
40%
22%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.871.823.69safe0.71–3.030.73–2.921.44–5.95safer0.41–3.330.44–3.200.85–6.54
Yellow cards
39%
21%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.992.034.03safe0.95–3.040.90–3.161.85–6.21safer0.68–3.310.61–3.451.29–6.76
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.260.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
58%
15%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction3.752.736.48safe2.31–5.181.17–4.293.49–9.47safer1.93–5.570.75–4.712.67–10.28
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.25 0.29–2.22 0.04–2.47 | 1.97 1.11–2.82 0.89–3.05 | 3.22 1.40–5.05 0.92–5.53 | 24% 22% 54% |
| Shots on target | 4.15 2.29–6.01 1.80–6.50 | 5.64 3.90–7.38 3.43–7.85 | 9.79 6.18–13.39 5.23–14.35 | 26% 62% |
| Total shots | 12.09 8.16–16.01 7.07–17.10 | 15.22 11.66–18.78 10.70–19.74 | 27.31 19.82–34.80 17.77–36.85 | 24% 69% |
| Shots in box | 8.26 5.32–11.20 4.49–12.03 | 10.47 7.79–13.15 7.05–13.88 | 18.73 13.10–24.35 11.54–25.92 | 27% 65% |
| Blocked shots | 3.52 1.64–5.40 1.09–5.94 | 4.66 3.01–6.32 2.52–6.81 | 8.18 4.65–11.72 3.61–12.75 | 28% 13% 59% |
| Corners | 4.55 2.34–6.76 1.76–7.34 | 5.04 3.04–7.04 2.51–7.57 | 9.59 5.38–13.80 4.27–14.91 | 37% 50% |
| Possession % | 41.87 35.08–48.66 33.41–50.33 | 58.12 51.34–64.91 49.67–66.58 | — | 15% 82% |
| Passes | 388 320–455 302–473 | 528 461–594 444–612 | 915 782–1049 746–1085 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.45 63.42–71.48 62.13–72.77 | 80.41 76.08–84.73 74.77–86.04 | — | 95% |
| Fouls | 10.88 8.05–13.72 7.29–14.48 | 12.64 9.69–15.58 8.94–16.33 | 23.52 17.74–29.30 16.24–30.81 | 32% 60% |
| Offsides | 1.87 0.71–3.03 0.41–3.33 | 1.82 0.73–2.92 0.44–3.20 | 3.69 1.44–5.95 0.85–6.54 | 40% 22% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.99 0.95–3.04 0.68–3.31 | 2.03 0.90–3.16 0.61–3.45 | 4.03 1.85–6.21 1.29–6.76 | 39% 21% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.75 2.31–5.18 1.93–5.57 | 2.73 1.17–4.29 0.75–4.71 | 6.48 3.49–9.47 2.67–10.28 | 58% 15% 27% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+