Premier League·Regular Season - 27·
Premier League·Regular Season - 27·Predicted match statistics
Goals
38%
26%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.391.362.75safe0.42–2.360.50–2.210.92–4.57safer0.17–2.610.28–2.440.45–5.05
Shots on target
44%
13%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.654.639.28safe2.79–6.512.89–6.375.67–12.88safer2.30–7.002.42–6.844.72–13.84
Total shots
55%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4812.3825.86safe9.55–17.408.82–15.9418.37–33.35safer8.46–18.507.86–16.9016.32–35.40
Shots in box
44%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction8.518.6717.18safe5.57–11.455.98–11.3511.55–22.80safer4.74–12.285.25–12.089.99–24.37
Blocked shots
44%
14%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.224.138.36safe2.34–6.112.48–5.794.82–11.89safer1.80–6.651.99–6.283.79–12.93
Corners
51%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.134.539.66safe2.92–7.352.53–6.535.45–13.88safer2.34–7.922.00–7.064.34–14.98
Possession %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction50.0750.60safe43.28–56.8643.82–57.39safer41.61–58.5342.15–59.06
Passes
49%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction465468933safe398–532401–534799–1066safer379–550384–552763–1102
Pass accuracy %
28%
67%
homeawayprediction73.5877.53safe69.55–77.6173.20–81.85safer68.26–78.9071.89–83.16
Fouls
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2711.3323.60safe9.43–15.118.39–14.2717.82–29.38safer8.68–15.877.64–15.0216.31–30.89
Offsides
30%
23%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.421.813.23safe0.26–2.580.72–2.910.98–5.49safer0.00–2.880.43–3.200.39–6.08
Yellow cards
33%
21%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.772.133.90safe0.72–2.821.00–3.261.72–6.08safer0.46–3.090.71–3.551.17–6.64
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.15safe0.00–0.240.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.390.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
39%
16%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.023.216.23safe1.58–4.451.66–4.773.24–9.22safer1.19–4.841.23–5.192.43–10.04
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.39 0.42–2.36 0.17–2.61 | 1.36 0.50–2.21 0.28–2.44 | 2.75 0.92–4.57 0.45–5.05 | 38% 26% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.65 2.79–6.51 2.30–7.00 | 4.63 2.89–6.37 2.42–6.84 | 9.28 5.67–12.88 4.72–13.84 | 44% 13% 43% |
| Total shots | 13.48 9.55–17.40 8.46–18.50 | 12.38 8.82–15.94 7.86–16.90 | 25.86 18.37–33.35 16.32–35.40 | 55% 38% |
| Shots in box | 8.51 5.57–11.45 4.74–12.28 | 8.67 5.98–11.35 5.25–12.08 | 17.18 11.55–22.80 9.99–24.37 | 44% 47% |
| Blocked shots | 4.22 2.34–6.11 1.80–6.65 | 4.13 2.48–5.79 1.99–6.28 | 8.36 4.82–11.89 3.79–12.93 | 44% 14% 42% |
| Corners | 5.13 2.92–7.35 2.34–7.92 | 4.53 2.53–6.53 2.00–7.06 | 9.66 5.45–13.88 4.34–14.98 | 51% 36% |
| Possession % | 50.07 43.28–56.86 41.61–58.53 | 50.60 43.82–57.39 42.15–59.06 | — | 46% 49% |
| Passes | 465 398–532 379–550 | 468 401–534 384–552 | 933 799–1066 763–1102 | 49% 51% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.58 69.55–77.61 68.26–78.90 | 77.53 73.20–81.85 71.89–83.16 | — | 28% 67% |
| Fouls | 12.27 9.43–15.11 8.68–15.87 | 11.33 8.39–14.27 7.64–15.02 | 23.60 17.82–29.38 16.31–30.89 | 54% 38% |
| Offsides | 1.42 0.26–2.58 0.00–2.88 | 1.81 0.72–2.91 0.43–3.20 | 3.23 0.98–5.49 0.39–6.08 | 30% 23% 47% |
| Yellow cards | 1.77 0.72–2.82 0.46–3.09 | 2.13 1.00–3.26 0.71–3.55 | 3.90 1.72–6.08 1.17–6.64 | 33% 21% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.02 1.58–4.45 1.19–4.84 | 3.21 1.66–4.77 1.23–5.19 | 6.23 3.24–9.22 2.43–10.04 | 39% 16% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.