Premier League·Regular Season - 28·
Premier League·Regular Season - 28·Predicted match statistics
Goals
66%
19%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction2.180.913.08safe1.21–3.140.05–1.761.26–4.91safer0.96–3.390.00–1.990.78–5.39
Shots on target
77%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction6.123.339.45safe4.25–7.981.59–5.075.84–13.06safer3.77–8.471.12–5.544.89–14.01
Total shots
90%
homeawaytotalprediction16.649.7126.36safe12.72–20.576.15–13.2818.87–33.84safer11.63–21.665.19–14.2316.82–35.89
Shots in box
85%
homeawaytotalprediction11.656.6618.31safe8.71–14.593.98–9.3412.69–23.93safer7.88–15.423.24–10.0811.12–25.50
Blocked shots
73%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction5.092.837.93safe3.21–6.971.18–4.494.39–11.46safer2.67–7.520.69–4.983.35–12.50
Corners
81%
homeawaytotalprediction6.733.4810.21safe4.52–8.941.48–5.486.00–14.42safer3.94–9.520.95–6.014.89–15.53
Possession %
83%
14%
homeawayprediction58.5141.55safe51.72–65.3034.76–48.33safer50.05–66.9733.09–50.00
Passes
93%
homeawaytotalprediction557378935safe490–624311–444801–1068safer472–642294–462765–1104
Pass accuracy %
73%
23%
homeawayprediction75.2170.02safe71.18–79.2465.70–74.35safer69.89–80.5464.39–75.66
Fouls
24%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction9.7812.5722.35safe6.94–12.629.62–15.5116.57–28.13safer6.19–13.378.87–16.2615.06–29.63
Offsides
40%
25%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.362.82safe0.30–2.620.26–2.450.57–5.08safer0.00–2.930.00–2.740.00–5.66
Yellow cards
22%
21%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.162.003.17safe0.11–2.210.87–3.130.99–5.34safer0.00–2.480.58–3.420.43–5.90
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.080.13safe0.00–0.210.00–0.270.00–0.48safer0.00–0.360.00–0.400.00–0.76
GK saves
20%
14%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction2.283.876.14safe0.84–3.712.31–5.423.15–9.14safer0.45–4.101.89–5.852.34–9.95
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.18 1.21–3.14 0.96–3.39 | 0.91 0.05–1.76 0.00–1.99 | 3.08 1.26–4.91 0.78–5.39 | 66% 19% 15% |
| Shots on target | 6.12 4.25–7.98 3.77–8.47 | 3.33 1.59–5.07 1.12–5.54 | 9.45 5.84–13.06 4.89–14.01 | 77% 14% |
| Total shots | 16.64 12.72–20.57 11.63–21.66 | 9.71 6.15–13.28 5.19–14.23 | 26.36 18.87–33.84 16.82–35.89 | 90% |
| Shots in box | 11.65 8.71–14.59 7.88–15.42 | 6.66 3.98–9.34 3.24–10.08 | 18.31 12.69–23.93 11.12–25.50 | 85% |
| Blocked shots | 5.09 3.21–6.97 2.67–7.52 | 2.83 1.18–4.49 0.69–4.98 | 7.93 4.39–11.46 3.35–12.50 | 73% 16% |
| Corners | 6.73 4.52–8.94 3.94–9.52 | 3.48 1.48–5.48 0.95–6.01 | 10.21 6.00–14.42 4.89–15.53 | 81% |
| Possession % | 58.51 51.72–65.30 50.05–66.97 | 41.55 34.76–48.33 33.09–50.00 | — | 83% 14% |
| Passes | 557 490–624 472–642 | 378 311–444 294–462 | 935 801–1068 765–1104 | 93% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.21 71.18–79.24 69.89–80.54 | 70.02 65.70–74.35 64.39–75.66 | — | 73% 23% |
| Fouls | 9.78 6.94–12.62 6.19–13.37 | 12.57 9.62–15.51 8.87–16.26 | 22.35 16.57–28.13 15.06–29.63 | 24% 69% |
| Offsides | 1.46 0.30–2.62 0.00–2.93 | 1.36 0.26–2.45 0.00–2.74 | 2.82 0.57–5.08 0.00–5.66 | 40% 25% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.16 0.11–2.21 0.00–2.48 | 2.00 0.87–3.13 0.58–3.42 | 3.17 0.99–5.34 0.43–5.90 | 22% 21% 57% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.28 0.84–3.71 0.45–4.10 | 3.87 2.31–5.42 1.89–5.85 | 6.14 3.15–9.14 2.34–9.95 | 20% 14% 67% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.