Premier League·Regular Season - 28·
Premier League·Regular Season - 28·Predicted match statistics
Goals
43%
25%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.282.78safe0.53–2.470.42–2.130.96–4.60safer0.28–2.720.19–2.360.48–5.08
Shots on target
47%
13%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.644.348.98safe2.78–6.512.60–6.085.38–12.59safer2.29–6.992.13–6.554.42–13.54
Total shots
63%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5912.3426.93safe10.66–18.518.78–15.9119.44–34.42safer9.57–19.607.82–16.8717.39–36.47
Shots in box
53%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction9.398.6118.00safe6.45–12.345.93–11.2912.38–23.62safer5.62–13.175.19–12.0310.81–25.19
Blocked shots
51%
14%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.143.547.68safe2.25–6.021.89–5.204.15–11.22safer1.71–6.561.40–5.693.11–12.25
Corners
49%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction5.164.779.93safe2.95–7.372.77–6.775.72–14.14safer2.37–7.952.24–7.304.61–15.25
Possession %
31%
65%
homeawayprediction46.7054.21safe39.91–53.4947.42–60.99safer38.24–55.1645.75–62.66
Passes
23%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction409496904safe341–476429–562771–1038safer323–494412–580735–1074
Pass accuracy %
86%
homeawayprediction68.7777.73safe64.75–72.8073.41–82.05safer63.45–74.1072.10–83.36
Fouls
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5812.6825.26safe9.75–15.429.73–15.6219.48–31.04safer8.99–16.188.98–16.3717.97–32.55
Offsides
49%
21%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction2.061.603.66safe0.90–3.220.51–2.691.41–5.91safer0.60–3.520.22–2.980.82–6.50
Yellow cards
33%
19%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.002.404.40safe0.95–3.051.27–3.532.22–6.58safer0.68–3.320.98–3.821.67–7.14
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.090.21safe0.00–0.290.00–0.280.00–0.56safer0.00–0.440.00–0.410.00–0.85
GK saves
37%
17%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.863.166.03safe1.43–4.301.61–4.723.03–9.02safer1.04–4.691.18–5.142.22–9.83
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.50 0.53–2.47 0.28–2.72 | 1.28 0.42–2.13 0.19–2.36 | 2.78 0.96–4.60 0.48–5.08 | 43% 25% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.64 2.78–6.51 2.29–6.99 | 4.34 2.60–6.08 2.13–6.55 | 8.98 5.38–12.59 4.42–13.54 | 47% 13% 39% |
| Total shots | 14.59 10.66–18.51 9.57–19.60 | 12.34 8.78–15.91 7.82–16.87 | 26.93 19.44–34.42 17.39–36.47 | 63% 30% |
| Shots in box | 9.39 6.45–12.34 5.62–13.17 | 8.61 5.93–11.29 5.19–12.03 | 18.00 12.38–23.62 10.81–25.19 | 53% 38% |
| Blocked shots | 4.14 2.25–6.02 1.71–6.56 | 3.54 1.89–5.20 1.40–5.69 | 7.68 4.15–11.22 3.11–12.25 | 51% 14% 34% |
| Corners | 5.16 2.95–7.37 2.37–7.95 | 4.77 2.77–6.77 2.24–7.30 | 9.93 5.72–14.14 4.61–15.25 | 49% 39% |
| Possession % | 46.70 39.91–53.49 38.24–55.16 | 54.21 47.42–60.99 45.75–62.66 | — | 31% 65% |
| Passes | 409 341–476 323–494 | 496 429–562 412–580 | 904 771–1038 735–1074 | 23% 77% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.77 64.75–72.80 63.45–74.10 | 77.73 73.41–82.05 72.10–83.36 | — | 86% |
| Fouls | 12.58 9.75–15.42 8.99–16.18 | 12.68 9.73–15.62 8.98–16.37 | 25.26 19.48–31.04 17.97–32.55 | 45% 47% |
| Offsides | 2.06 0.90–3.22 0.60–3.52 | 1.60 0.51–2.69 0.22–2.98 | 3.66 1.41–5.91 0.82–6.50 | 49% 21% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 2.00 0.95–3.05 0.68–3.32 | 2.40 1.27–3.53 0.98–3.82 | 4.40 2.22–6.58 1.67–7.14 | 33% 19% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.85 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.86 1.43–4.30 1.04–4.69 | 3.16 1.61–4.72 1.18–5.14 | 6.03 3.03–9.02 2.22–9.83 | 37% 17% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.