Premier League·Regular Season - 28·
Premier League·Regular Season - 28·Predicted match statistics
Goals
50%
24%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.212.94safe0.76–2.700.36–2.071.12–4.77safer0.51–2.950.13–2.300.64–5.25
Shots on target
66%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.613.879.48safe3.75–7.472.13–5.615.87–13.08safer3.26–7.961.66–6.084.92–14.04
Total shots
82%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction16.2510.9827.23safe12.32–20.177.41–14.5419.74–34.71safer11.23–21.276.46–15.5017.69–36.76
Shots in box
77%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction11.117.3818.49safe8.16–14.054.70–10.0612.86–24.11safer7.33–14.883.96–10.8011.30–25.68
Blocked shots
56%
14%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.253.337.59safe2.37–6.131.68–4.994.05–11.12safer1.83–6.681.19–5.483.01–12.16
Corners
68%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.863.869.72safe3.65–8.081.86–5.865.51–13.93safer3.08–8.651.33–6.394.40–15.04
Possession %
66%
30%
homeawayprediction54.4146.54safe47.62–61.2039.75–53.32safer45.95–62.8738.08–54.99
Passes
75%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction497415912safe430–564349–482779–1046safer412–582331–499743–1082
Pass accuracy %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction74.4072.21safe70.37–78.4367.88–76.53safer69.08–79.7366.58–77.84
Fouls
57%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9110.5422.46safe9.07–14.757.60–13.4916.67–28.24safer8.32–15.516.85–14.2415.17–29.74
Offsides
50%
18%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction2.712.184.89safe1.55–3.871.08–3.272.63–7.14safer1.25–4.170.80–3.562.04–7.73
Yellow cards
35%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.963.71safe0.70–2.800.83–3.091.53–5.88safer0.43–3.060.54–3.380.97–6.44
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.14safe0.00–0.230.00–0.260.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.390.00–0.77
GK saves
24%
14%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction2.533.786.30safe1.09–3.962.22–5.333.31–9.30safer0.70–4.351.80–5.762.50–10.11
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.73 0.76–2.70 0.51–2.95 | 1.21 0.36–2.07 0.13–2.30 | 2.94 1.12–4.77 0.64–5.25 | 50% 24% 27% |
| Shots on target | 5.61 3.75–7.47 3.26–7.96 | 3.87 2.13–5.61 1.66–6.08 | 9.48 5.87–13.08 4.92–14.04 | 66% 23% |
| Total shots | 16.25 12.32–20.17 11.23–21.27 | 10.98 7.41–14.54 6.46–15.50 | 27.23 19.74–34.71 17.69–36.76 | 82% 13% |
| Shots in box | 11.11 8.16–14.05 7.33–14.88 | 7.38 4.70–10.06 3.96–10.80 | 18.49 12.86–24.11 11.30–25.68 | 77% 16% |
| Blocked shots | 4.25 2.37–6.13 1.83–6.68 | 3.33 1.68–4.99 1.19–5.48 | 7.59 4.05–11.12 3.01–12.16 | 56% 14% 30% |
| Corners | 5.86 3.65–8.08 3.08–8.65 | 3.86 1.86–5.86 1.33–6.39 | 9.72 5.51–13.93 4.40–15.04 | 68% 21% |
| Possession % | 54.41 47.62–61.20 45.95–62.87 | 46.54 39.75–53.32 38.08–54.99 | — | 66% 30% |
| Passes | 497 430–564 412–582 | 415 349–482 331–499 | 912 779–1046 743–1082 | 75% 25% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.40 70.37–78.43 69.08–79.73 | 72.21 67.88–76.53 66.58–77.84 | — | 59% 36% |
| Fouls | 11.91 9.07–14.75 8.32–15.51 | 10.54 7.60–13.49 6.85–14.24 | 22.46 16.67–28.24 15.17–29.74 | 57% 35% |
| Offsides | 2.71 1.55–3.87 1.25–4.17 | 2.18 1.08–3.27 0.80–3.56 | 4.89 2.63–7.14 2.04–7.73 | 50% 18% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.75 0.70–2.80 0.43–3.06 | 1.96 0.83–3.09 0.54–3.38 | 3.71 1.53–5.88 0.97–6.44 | 35% 21% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.53 1.09–3.96 0.70–4.35 | 3.78 2.22–5.33 1.80–5.76 | 6.30 3.31–9.30 2.50–10.11 | 24% 14% 62% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.