Premier League·Regular Season - 28·
Premier League·Regular Season - 28·Predicted match statistics
Goals
74%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction2.450.773.22safe1.49–3.420.00–1.621.40–5.04safer1.23–3.670.00–1.850.92–5.52
Shots on target
84%
homeawaytotalprediction6.773.219.97safe4.90–8.631.46–4.956.37–13.58safer4.41–9.121.00–5.415.41–14.53
Total shots
98%
homeawaytotalprediction19.068.4227.48safe15.14–22.994.86–11.9819.99–34.97safer14.05–24.083.90–12.9417.94–37.02
Shots in box
89%
homeawaytotalprediction12.366.6218.98safe9.41–15.303.94–9.3013.36–24.60safer8.58–16.133.21–10.0411.79–26.17
Blocked shots
89%
homeawaytotalprediction5.972.078.04safe4.09–7.860.42–3.724.51–11.58safer3.55–8.400.00–4.213.47–12.61
Corners
87%
homeawaytotalprediction7.543.3710.91safe5.33–9.751.37–5.376.70–15.13safer4.75–10.330.84–5.915.59–16.23
Possession %
99%
homeawayprediction69.6730.11safe62.88–76.4623.33–36.90safer61.21–78.1321.65–38.57
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction6993101010safe632–767244–377876–1143safer614–785226–394840–1179
Pass accuracy %
97%
homeawayprediction83.5568.08safe79.52–87.5863.76–72.41safer78.23–88.8862.45–73.72
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction10.4310.7921.22safe7.59–13.277.85–13.7415.44–27.01safer6.84–14.027.10–14.4913.94–28.51
Offsides
19%
18%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction1.312.503.81safe0.15–2.471.41–3.591.56–6.06safer0.00–2.771.12–3.880.97–6.65
Yellow cards
23%
23%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.151.863.00safe0.10–2.190.73–2.980.82–5.18safer0.00–2.460.44–3.280.27–5.74
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.070.11safe0.00–0.200.00–0.260.00–0.46safer0.00–0.350.00–0.390.00–0.74
GK saves
18%
13%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction2.284.026.30safe0.85–3.722.46–5.573.31–9.29safer0.46–4.112.04–6.002.49–10.10
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.45 1.49–3.42 1.23–3.67 | 0.77 0.00–1.62 0.00–1.85 | 3.22 1.40–5.04 0.92–5.52 | 74% 16% |
| Shots on target | 6.77 4.90–8.63 4.41–9.12 | 3.21 1.46–4.95 1.00–5.41 | 9.97 6.37–13.58 5.41–14.53 | 84% |
| Total shots | 19.06 15.14–22.99 14.05–24.08 | 8.42 4.86–11.98 3.90–12.94 | 27.48 19.99–34.97 17.94–37.02 | 98% |
| Shots in box | 12.36 9.41–15.30 8.58–16.13 | 6.62 3.94–9.30 3.21–10.04 | 18.98 13.36–24.60 11.79–26.17 | 89% |
| Blocked shots | 5.97 4.09–7.86 3.55–8.40 | 2.07 0.42–3.72 0.00–4.21 | 8.04 4.51–11.58 3.47–12.61 | 89% |
| Corners | 7.54 5.33–9.75 4.75–10.33 | 3.37 1.37–5.37 0.84–5.91 | 10.91 6.70–15.13 5.59–16.23 | 87% |
| Possession % | 69.67 62.88–76.46 61.21–78.13 | 30.11 23.33–36.90 21.65–38.57 | — | 99% |
| Passes | 699 632–767 614–785 | 310 244–377 226–394 | 1010 876–1143 840–1179 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.55 79.52–87.58 78.23–88.88 | 68.08 63.76–72.41 62.45–73.72 | — | 97% |
| Fouls | 10.43 7.59–13.27 6.84–14.02 | 10.79 7.85–13.74 7.10–14.49 | 21.22 15.44–27.01 13.94–28.51 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.31 0.15–2.47 0.00–2.77 | 2.50 1.41–3.59 1.12–3.88 | 3.81 1.56–6.06 0.97–6.65 | 19% 18% 63% |
| Yellow cards | 1.15 0.10–2.19 0.00–2.46 | 1.86 0.73–2.98 0.44–3.28 | 3.00 0.82–5.18 0.27–5.74 | 23% 23% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.11 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.74 | 90% |
| GK saves | 2.28 0.85–3.72 0.46–4.11 | 4.02 2.46–5.57 2.04–6.00 | 6.30 3.31–9.29 2.49–10.10 | 18% 13% 69% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.