Premier League·Regular Season - 28·
Premier League·Regular Season - 28·Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
26%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.092.55safe0.49–2.420.24–1.950.72–4.37safer0.24–2.680.01–2.170.24–4.85
Shots on target
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.273.909.17safe3.41–7.132.16–5.645.56–12.78safer2.92–7.621.69–6.114.61–13.73
Total shots
86%
homeawaytotalprediction17.7711.5229.29safe13.84–21.697.96–15.0821.80–36.77safer12.75–22.787.00–16.0419.75–38.82
Shots in box
76%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction11.157.6418.80safe8.21–14.094.96–10.3313.17–24.42safer7.38–14.924.23–11.0611.61–25.99
Blocked shots
76%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction5.462.948.41safe3.58–7.351.29–4.604.87–11.94safer3.04–7.890.80–5.093.84–12.98
Corners
65%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.834.109.93safe3.62–8.042.10–6.105.71–14.14safer3.04–8.621.56–6.634.61–15.25
Possession %
39%
57%
homeawayprediction48.1452.03safe41.35–54.9345.25–58.82safer39.68–56.6043.57–60.49
Passes
34%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction396444840safe329–463378–511706–974safer311–481360–528671–1009
Pass accuracy %
22%
73%
homeawayprediction68.2373.59safe64.20–72.2669.27–77.92safer62.91–73.5567.96–79.22
Fouls
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0411.1823.21safe9.20–14.878.23–14.1217.43–29.00safer8.44–15.637.48–14.8715.93–30.50
Offsides
34%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.651.903.55safe0.49–2.810.81–3.001.30–5.80safer0.19–3.110.52–3.280.71–6.39
Yellow cards
36%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.862.013.87safe0.81–2.910.88–3.141.69–6.05safer0.54–3.170.59–3.431.14–6.61
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
27%
15%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.583.586.16safe1.14–4.012.02–5.143.17–9.15safer0.75–4.401.60–5.562.35–9.96
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.46 0.49–2.42 0.24–2.68 | 1.09 0.24–1.95 0.01–2.17 | 2.55 0.72–4.37 0.24–4.85 | 45% 26% 28% |
| Shots on target | 5.27 3.41–7.13 2.92–7.62 | 3.90 2.16–5.64 1.69–6.11 | 9.17 5.56–12.78 4.61–13.73 | 61% 27% |
| Total shots | 17.77 13.84–21.69 12.75–22.78 | 11.52 7.96–15.08 7.00–16.04 | 29.29 21.80–36.77 19.75–38.82 | 86% |
| Shots in box | 11.15 8.21–14.09 7.38–14.92 | 7.64 4.96–10.33 4.23–11.06 | 18.80 13.17–24.42 11.61–25.99 | 76% 18% |
| Blocked shots | 5.46 3.58–7.35 3.04–7.89 | 2.94 1.29–4.60 0.80–5.09 | 8.41 4.87–11.94 3.84–12.98 | 76% 14% |
| Corners | 5.83 3.62–8.04 3.04–8.62 | 4.10 2.10–6.10 1.56–6.63 | 9.93 5.71–14.14 4.61–15.25 | 65% 24% |
| Possession % | 48.14 41.35–54.93 39.68–56.60 | 52.03 45.25–58.82 43.57–60.49 | — | 39% 57% |
| Passes | 396 329–463 311–481 | 444 378–511 360–528 | 840 706–974 671–1009 | 34% 65% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.23 64.20–72.26 62.91–73.55 | 73.59 69.27–77.92 67.96–79.22 | — | 22% 73% |
| Fouls | 12.04 9.20–14.87 8.44–15.63 | 11.18 8.23–14.12 7.48–14.87 | 23.21 17.43–29.00 15.93–30.50 | 53% 39% |
| Offsides | 1.65 0.49–2.81 0.19–3.11 | 1.90 0.81–3.00 0.52–3.28 | 3.55 1.30–5.80 0.71–6.39 | 34% 22% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 1.86 0.81–2.91 0.54–3.17 | 2.01 0.88–3.14 0.59–3.43 | 3.87 1.69–6.05 1.14–6.61 | 36% 21% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.58 1.14–4.01 0.75–4.40 | 3.58 2.02–5.14 1.60–5.56 | 6.16 3.17–9.15 2.35–9.96 | 27% 15% 58% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+