Premier League·Regular Season - 28·
Premier League·Regular Season - 28·Predicted match statistics
Goals
21%
23%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.001.802.80safe0.03–1.970.94–2.650.97–4.62safer0.00–2.220.71–2.880.49–5.10
Shots on target
24%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction3.615.158.76safe1.75–5.473.41–6.895.15–12.36safer1.26–5.962.94–7.364.20–13.32
Total shots
27%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7614.3026.06safe7.83–15.6810.74–17.8618.57–33.54safer6.74–16.779.78–18.8216.52–35.59
Shots in box
34%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction7.758.9616.71safe4.81–10.696.28–11.6411.09–22.33safer3.98–11.525.54–12.389.52–23.90
Blocked shots
30%
13%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction3.624.588.20safe1.74–5.502.93–6.234.67–11.74safer1.20–6.052.43–6.733.63–12.77
Corners
33%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction4.645.5510.20safe2.43–6.863.55–7.555.98–14.41safer1.86–7.433.02–8.084.87–15.52
Possession %
87%
homeawayprediction39.8560.25safe33.06–46.6453.47–67.04safer31.39–48.3151.79–68.71
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction360532893safe293–428466–599759–1027safer275–446448–616723–1062
Pass accuracy %
94%
homeawayprediction65.7178.01safe61.68–69.7473.69–82.33safer60.39–71.0372.38–83.64
Fouls
53%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7010.7922.49safe8.86–14.537.85–13.7416.71–28.27safer8.10–15.297.10–14.4915.20–29.78
Offsides
46%
25%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.252.86safe0.45–2.770.15–2.340.61–5.11safer0.15–3.080.00–2.630.02–5.70
Yellow cards
44%
21%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.001.753.74safe0.95–3.050.62–2.871.57–5.92safer0.68–3.310.33–3.171.01–6.48
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.080.17safe0.00–0.250.00–0.270.00–0.52safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.80
GK saves
52%
16%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction3.292.645.93safe1.86–4.731.09–4.202.94–8.93safer1.47–5.120.66–4.622.13–9.74
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.00 0.03–1.97 0.00–2.22 | 1.80 0.94–2.65 0.71–2.88 | 2.80 0.97–4.62 0.49–5.10 | 21% 23% 56% |
| Shots on target | 3.61 1.75–5.47 1.26–5.96 | 5.15 3.41–6.89 2.94–7.36 | 8.76 5.15–12.36 4.20–13.32 | 24% 64% |
| Total shots | 11.76 7.83–15.68 6.74–16.77 | 14.30 10.74–17.86 9.78–18.82 | 26.06 18.57–33.54 16.52–35.59 | 27% 66% |
| Shots in box | 7.75 4.81–10.69 3.98–11.52 | 8.96 6.28–11.64 5.54–12.38 | 16.71 11.09–22.33 9.52–23.90 | 34% 57% |
| Blocked shots | 3.62 1.74–5.50 1.20–6.05 | 4.58 2.93–6.23 2.43–6.73 | 8.20 4.67–11.74 3.63–12.77 | 30% 13% 56% |
| Corners | 4.64 2.43–6.86 1.86–7.43 | 5.55 3.55–7.55 3.02–8.08 | 10.20 5.98–14.41 4.87–15.52 | 33% 55% |
| Possession % | 39.85 33.06–46.64 31.39–48.31 | 60.25 53.47–67.04 51.79–68.71 | — | 87% |
| Passes | 360 293–428 275–446 | 532 466–599 448–616 | 893 759–1027 723–1062 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.71 61.68–69.74 60.39–71.03 | 78.01 73.69–82.33 72.38–83.64 | — | 94% |
| Fouls | 11.70 8.86–14.53 8.10–15.29 | 10.79 7.85–13.74 7.10–14.49 | 22.49 16.71–28.27 15.20–29.78 | 53% 38% |
| Offsides | 1.61 0.45–2.77 0.15–3.08 | 1.25 0.15–2.34 0.00–2.63 | 2.86 0.61–5.11 0.02–5.70 | 46% 25% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 2.00 0.95–3.05 0.68–3.31 | 1.75 0.62–2.87 0.33–3.17 | 3.74 1.57–5.92 1.01–6.48 | 44% 21% 34% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.29 1.86–4.73 1.47–5.12 | 2.64 1.09–4.20 0.66–4.62 | 5.93 2.94–8.93 2.13–9.74 | 52% 16% 32% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.