Premier League·Regular Season - 29·
Premier League·Regular Season - 29·Predicted match statistics
Goals
50%
25%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.052.66safe0.64–2.580.19–1.900.84–4.48safer0.39–2.830.00–2.130.36–4.96
Shots on target
65%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.163.498.64safe3.29–7.021.74–5.235.04–12.25safer2.80–7.511.28–5.694.08–13.20
Total shots
83%
homeawaytotalprediction15.5810.3025.88safe11.65–19.506.74–13.8718.39–33.37safer10.56–20.595.78–14.8316.34–35.42
Shots in box
73%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction9.976.9516.92safe7.03–12.914.27–9.6411.30–22.55safer6.20–13.743.54–10.379.73–24.11
Blocked shots
71%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction4.522.567.08safe2.64–6.400.90–4.213.54–10.61safer2.10–6.950.41–4.702.51–11.65
Corners
74%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction6.293.7810.08safe4.08–8.511.78–5.785.86–14.29safer3.51–9.081.25–6.324.76–15.40
Possession %
95%
homeawayprediction64.3334.73safe57.54–71.1227.95–41.52safer55.87–72.7926.28–43.19
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction596306902safe529–663240–373768–1036safer510–681222–390733–1071
Pass accuracy %
87%
homeawayprediction75.3566.26safe71.32–79.3861.93–70.58safer70.03–80.6760.63–71.89
Fouls
32%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction10.0011.7421.75safe7.17–12.848.80–14.6915.96–27.53safer6.41–13.608.05–15.4414.46–29.03
Offsides
20%
16%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction1.712.974.68safe0.55–2.871.88–4.062.42–6.93safer0.25–3.171.59–4.351.84–7.52
Yellow cards
23%
19%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction1.452.383.82safe0.40–2.501.25–3.501.65–6.00safer0.13–2.760.95–3.801.09–6.56
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79
GK saves
26%
15%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction2.483.566.04safe1.05–3.922.00–5.113.05–9.03safer0.66–4.311.57–5.542.23–9.84
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.61 0.64–2.58 0.39–2.83 | 1.05 0.19–1.90 0.00–2.13 | 2.66 0.84–4.48 0.36–4.96 | 50% 25% 25% |
| Shots on target | 5.16 3.29–7.02 2.80–7.51 | 3.49 1.74–5.23 1.28–5.69 | 8.64 5.04–12.25 4.08–13.20 | 65% 23% |
| Total shots | 15.58 11.65–19.50 10.56–20.59 | 10.30 6.74–13.87 5.78–14.83 | 25.88 18.39–33.37 16.34–35.42 | 83% |
| Shots in box | 9.97 7.03–12.91 6.20–13.74 | 6.95 4.27–9.64 3.54–10.37 | 16.92 11.30–22.55 9.73–24.11 | 73% 20% |
| Blocked shots | 4.52 2.64–6.40 2.10–6.95 | 2.56 0.90–4.21 0.41–4.70 | 7.08 3.54–10.61 2.51–11.65 | 71% 17% |
| Corners | 6.29 4.08–8.51 3.51–9.08 | 3.78 1.78–5.78 1.25–6.32 | 10.08 5.86–14.29 4.76–15.40 | 74% 17% |
| Possession % | 64.33 57.54–71.12 55.87–72.79 | 34.73 27.95–41.52 26.28–43.19 | — | 95% |
| Passes | 596 529–663 510–681 | 306 240–373 222–390 | 902 768–1036 733–1071 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.35 71.32–79.38 70.03–80.67 | 66.26 61.93–70.58 60.63–71.89 | — | 87% |
| Fouls | 10.00 7.17–12.84 6.41–13.60 | 11.74 8.80–14.69 8.05–15.44 | 21.75 15.96–27.53 14.46–29.03 | 32% 60% |
| Offsides | 1.71 0.55–2.87 0.25–3.17 | 2.97 1.88–4.06 1.59–4.35 | 4.68 2.42–6.93 1.84–7.52 | 20% 16% 64% |
| Yellow cards | 1.45 0.40–2.50 0.13–2.76 | 2.38 1.25–3.50 0.95–3.80 | 3.82 1.65–6.00 1.09–6.56 | 23% 19% 58% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.48 1.05–3.92 0.66–4.31 | 3.56 2.00–5.11 1.57–5.54 | 6.04 3.05–9.03 2.23–9.84 | 26% 15% 59% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.