Premier League·Regular Season - 29·
Premier League·Regular Season - 29·Predicted match statistics
Goals
53%
24%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.681.022.70safe0.71–2.650.17–1.880.88–4.53safer0.46–2.900.00–2.110.40–5.01
Shots on target
70%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5.673.619.28safe3.81–7.531.87–5.355.67–12.88safer3.32–8.021.40–5.824.71–13.84
Total shots
92%
homeawaytotalprediction18.2810.3528.62safe14.35–22.206.78–13.9121.14–36.11safer13.26–23.295.82–14.8719.09–38.16
Shots in box
82%
homeawaytotalprediction11.046.7617.79safe8.10–13.984.08–9.4412.17–23.42safer7.27–14.813.34–10.1710.60–24.98
Blocked shots
73%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction5.122.918.03safe3.24–7.011.25–4.564.49–11.57safer2.70–7.550.76–5.053.46–12.60
Corners
72%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction6.424.0610.48safe4.21–8.632.06–6.066.26–14.69safer3.63–9.211.52–6.595.15–15.80
Possession %
57%
38%
homeawayprediction51.9547.99safe45.16–58.7441.20–54.77safer43.49–60.4139.53–56.45
Passes
62%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction467430897safe400–535363–496764–1031safer382–553346–514728–1067
Pass accuracy %
40%
55%
homeawayprediction71.6973.08safe67.66–75.7268.76–77.41safer66.37–77.0167.45–78.72
Fouls
40%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5612.2323.79safe8.72–14.409.29–15.1818.01–29.57safer7.97–15.158.54–15.9216.50–31.08
Offsides
45%
23%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.791.493.28safe0.63–2.950.40–2.581.02–5.53safer0.32–3.250.11–2.870.43–6.12
Yellow cards
33%
20%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.962.344.30safe0.91–3.011.22–3.472.12–6.48safer0.64–3.270.92–3.761.57–7.04
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.18safe0.00–0.250.00–0.280.00–0.53safer0.00–0.400.00–0.420.00–0.81
GK saves
25%
15%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction2.383.505.88safe0.94–3.811.94–5.062.88–8.87safer0.55–4.201.52–5.482.07–9.68
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.68 0.71–2.65 0.46–2.90 | 1.02 0.17–1.88 0.00–2.11 | 2.70 0.88–4.53 0.40–5.01 | 53% 24% 23% |
| Shots on target | 5.67 3.81–7.53 3.32–8.02 | 3.61 1.87–5.35 1.40–5.82 | 9.28 5.67–12.88 4.71–13.84 | 70% 20% |
| Total shots | 18.28 14.35–22.20 13.26–23.29 | 10.35 6.78–13.91 5.82–14.87 | 28.62 21.14–36.11 19.09–38.16 | 92% |
| Shots in box | 11.04 8.10–13.98 7.27–14.81 | 6.76 4.08–9.44 3.34–10.17 | 17.79 12.17–23.42 10.60–24.98 | 82% |
| Blocked shots | 5.12 3.24–7.01 2.70–7.55 | 2.91 1.25–4.56 0.76–5.05 | 8.03 4.49–11.57 3.46–12.60 | 73% 17% |
| Corners | 6.42 4.21–8.63 3.63–9.21 | 4.06 2.06–6.06 1.52–6.59 | 10.48 6.26–14.69 5.15–15.80 | 72% 19% |
| Possession % | 51.95 45.16–58.74 43.49–60.41 | 47.99 41.20–54.77 39.53–56.45 | — | 57% 38% |
| Passes | 467 400–535 382–553 | 430 363–496 346–514 | 897 764–1031 728–1067 | 62% 38% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.69 67.66–75.72 66.37–77.01 | 73.08 68.76–77.41 67.45–78.72 | — | 40% 55% |
| Fouls | 11.56 8.72–14.40 7.97–15.15 | 12.23 9.29–15.18 8.54–15.92 | 23.79 18.01–29.57 16.50–31.08 | 40% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.79 0.63–2.95 0.32–3.25 | 1.49 0.40–2.58 0.11–2.87 | 3.28 1.02–5.53 0.43–6.12 | 45% 23% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.96 0.91–3.01 0.64–3.27 | 2.34 1.22–3.47 0.92–3.76 | 4.30 2.12–6.48 1.57–7.04 | 33% 20% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.38 0.94–3.81 0.55–4.20 | 3.50 1.94–5.06 1.52–5.48 | 5.88 2.88–8.87 2.07–9.68 | 25% 15% 60% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.