Predicted match statistics
Goals
33%
26%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.241.432.67safe0.27–2.210.58–2.290.85–4.50safer0.02–2.460.35–2.520.37–4.98
Shots on target
33%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction4.104.959.05safe2.24–5.963.21–6.695.45–12.66safer1.75–6.452.74–7.164.49–13.61
Total shots
33%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1713.9526.12safe8.25–16.1010.39–17.5118.64–33.61safer7.16–17.199.43–18.4716.59–35.66
Shots in box
29%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction7.659.3817.03safe4.71–10.596.70–12.0611.41–22.65safer3.88–11.425.96–12.809.84–24.22
Blocked shots
40%
15%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.813.987.80safe1.93–5.702.33–5.634.26–11.33safer1.39–6.241.84–6.133.22–12.37
Corners
40%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.865.1810.04safe2.65–7.083.18–7.185.83–14.26safer2.08–7.652.65–7.714.72–15.37
Possession %
36%
59%
homeawayprediction47.8052.81safe41.01–54.5946.03–59.60safer39.34–56.2644.36–61.27
Passes
40%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction448479927safe381–515413–546794–1061safer363–534395–563758–1097
Pass accuracy %
18%
78%
homeawayprediction70.8177.42safe66.78–74.8473.10–81.74safer65.49–76.1371.79–83.05
Fouls
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9811.5323.50safe9.14–14.818.58–14.4717.72–29.29safer8.38–15.577.83–15.2216.22–30.79
Offsides
31%
23%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.793.23safe0.28–2.600.70–2.890.98–5.49safer0.00–2.900.41–3.180.39–6.08
Yellow cards
41%
20%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.162.104.26safe1.11–3.210.97–3.232.08–6.44safer0.85–3.480.68–3.521.52–7.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.070.16safe0.00–0.250.00–0.260.00–0.51safer0.00–0.400.00–0.390.00–0.79
GK saves
48%
17%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.112.745.85safe1.68–4.551.18–4.292.86–8.84safer1.29–4.940.76–4.722.05–9.66
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.24 0.27–2.21 0.02–2.46 | 1.43 0.58–2.29 0.35–2.52 | 2.67 0.85–4.50 0.37–4.98 | 33% 26% 42% |
| Shots on target | 4.10 2.24–5.96 1.75–6.45 | 4.95 3.21–6.69 2.74–7.16 | 9.05 5.45–12.66 4.49–13.61 | 33% 55% |
| Total shots | 12.17 8.25–16.10 7.16–17.19 | 13.95 10.39–17.51 9.43–18.47 | 26.12 18.64–33.61 16.59–35.66 | 33% 60% |
| Shots in box | 7.65 4.71–10.59 3.88–11.42 | 9.38 6.70–12.06 5.96–12.80 | 17.03 11.41–22.65 9.84–24.22 | 29% 62% |
| Blocked shots | 3.81 1.93–5.70 1.39–6.24 | 3.98 2.33–5.63 1.84–6.13 | 7.80 4.26–11.33 3.22–12.37 | 40% 15% 45% |
| Corners | 4.86 2.65–7.08 2.08–7.65 | 5.18 3.18–7.18 2.65–7.71 | 10.04 5.83–14.26 4.72–15.37 | 40% 48% |
| Possession % | 47.80 41.01–54.59 39.34–56.26 | 52.81 46.03–59.60 44.36–61.27 | — | 36% 59% |
| Passes | 448 381–515 363–534 | 479 413–546 395–563 | 927 794–1061 758–1097 | 40% 60% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.81 66.78–74.84 65.49–76.13 | 77.42 73.10–81.74 71.79–83.05 | — | 18% 78% |
| Fouls | 11.98 9.14–14.81 8.38–15.57 | 11.53 8.58–14.47 7.83–15.22 | 23.50 17.72–29.29 16.22–30.79 | 50% 42% |
| Offsides | 1.44 0.28–2.60 0.00–2.90 | 1.79 0.70–2.89 0.41–3.18 | 3.23 0.98–5.49 0.39–6.08 | 31% 23% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 2.16 1.11–3.21 0.85–3.48 | 2.10 0.97–3.23 0.68–3.52 | 4.26 2.08–6.44 1.52–7.00 | 41% 20% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.11 1.68–4.55 1.29–4.94 | 2.74 1.18–4.29 0.76–4.72 | 5.85 2.86–8.84 2.05–9.66 | 48% 17% 36% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.