Premier League·Regular Season - 29·
Premier League·Regular Season - 29·Predicted match statistics
Goals
18%
21%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction0.982.002.98safe0.01–1.951.14–2.851.15–4.80safer0.00–2.200.91–3.080.68–5.28
Shots on target
16%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction3.616.269.87safe1.75–5.484.52–8.006.27–13.48safer1.26–5.974.05–8.475.31–14.43
Total shots
13%
82%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0816.3527.43safe7.16–15.0112.78–19.9119.94–34.91safer6.06–16.1011.82–20.8717.89–36.96
Shots in box
14%
80%
homeawaytotalprediction7.2511.2918.54safe4.31–10.198.61–13.9812.92–24.17safer3.48–11.027.88–14.7111.35–25.73
Blocked shots
20%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction3.104.907.99safe1.21–4.983.25–6.554.46–11.53safer0.67–5.522.75–7.043.42–12.57
Corners
22%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction4.236.2510.49safe2.02–6.454.25–8.256.27–14.70safer1.45–7.023.72–8.795.17–15.81
Possession %
98%
homeawayprediction33.4867.81safe26.69–40.2761.03–74.60safer25.02–41.9459.35–76.27
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction328653981safe261–396587–720848–1115safer243–414569–737812–1151
Pass accuracy %
99%
homeawayprediction66.5183.96safe62.48–70.5479.63–88.28safer61.19–71.8378.32–89.59
Fouls
53%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5210.6422.15safe8.68–14.357.69–13.5816.37–27.93safer7.92–15.116.94–14.3314.87–29.44
Offsides
45%
18%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.612.384.99safe1.45–3.771.28–3.472.73–7.24safer1.15–4.070.99–3.762.14–7.83
Yellow cards
42%
23%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.643.42safe0.73–2.830.51–2.761.24–5.60safer0.47–3.100.22–3.060.68–6.15
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.060.12safe0.00–0.230.00–0.250.00–0.47safer0.00–0.370.00–0.380.00–0.75
GK saves
65%
14%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction3.972.486.45safe2.54–5.410.92–4.043.46–9.45safer2.15–5.800.50–4.462.65–10.26
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.98 0.01–1.95 0.00–2.20 | 2.00 1.14–2.85 0.91–3.08 | 2.98 1.15–4.80 0.68–5.28 | 18% 21% 61% |
| Shots on target | 3.61 1.75–5.48 1.26–5.97 | 6.26 4.52–8.00 4.05–8.47 | 9.87 6.27–13.48 5.31–14.43 | 16% 75% |
| Total shots | 11.08 7.16–15.01 6.06–16.10 | 16.35 12.78–19.91 11.82–20.87 | 27.43 19.94–34.91 17.89–36.96 | 13% 82% |
| Shots in box | 7.25 4.31–10.19 3.48–11.02 | 11.29 8.61–13.98 7.88–14.71 | 18.54 12.92–24.17 11.35–25.73 | 14% 80% |
| Blocked shots | 3.10 1.21–4.98 0.67–5.52 | 4.90 3.25–6.55 2.75–7.04 | 7.99 4.46–11.53 3.42–12.57 | 20% 68% |
| Corners | 4.23 2.02–6.45 1.45–7.02 | 6.25 4.25–8.25 3.72–8.79 | 10.49 6.27–14.70 5.17–15.81 | 22% 68% |
| Possession % | 33.48 26.69–40.27 25.02–41.94 | 67.81 61.03–74.60 59.35–76.27 | — | 98% |
| Passes | 328 261–396 243–414 | 653 587–720 569–737 | 981 848–1115 812–1151 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.51 62.48–70.54 61.19–71.83 | 83.96 79.63–88.28 78.32–89.59 | — | 99% |
| Fouls | 11.52 8.68–14.35 7.92–15.11 | 10.64 7.69–13.58 6.94–14.33 | 22.15 16.37–27.93 14.87–29.44 | 53% 38% |
| Offsides | 2.61 1.45–3.77 1.15–4.07 | 2.38 1.28–3.47 0.99–3.76 | 4.99 2.73–7.24 2.14–7.83 | 45% 18% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.78 0.73–2.83 0.47–3.10 | 1.64 0.51–2.76 0.22–3.06 | 3.42 1.24–5.60 0.68–6.15 | 42% 23% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.37 | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.38 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.75 | 89% |
| GK saves | 3.97 2.54–5.41 2.15–5.80 | 2.48 0.92–4.04 0.50–4.46 | 6.45 3.46–9.45 2.65–10.26 | 65% 14% 21% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.