Premier League·Regular Season - 29·
Premier League·Regular Season - 29·Predicted match statistics
Goals
35%
27%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.231.312.54safe0.27–2.200.45–2.160.72–4.36safer0.02–2.450.22–2.390.24–4.84
Shots on target
45%
14%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.163.998.15safe2.30–6.022.25–5.734.54–11.75safer1.81–6.511.78–6.203.59–12.71
Total shots
59%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1311.4924.62safe9.20–17.057.93–15.0517.13–32.10safer8.11–18.146.97–16.0115.08–34.15
Shots in box
55%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction8.797.8016.59safe5.85–11.735.12–10.4810.96–22.21safer5.02–12.564.38–11.219.40–23.78
Blocked shots
45%
15%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.883.717.59safe2.00–5.772.05–5.364.06–11.13safer1.46–6.311.56–5.853.02–12.16
Corners
50%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction5.485.0010.48safe3.26–7.693.00–7.006.26–14.69safer2.69–8.262.46–7.535.15–15.80
Possession %
34%
61%
homeawayprediction47.2252.99safe40.43–54.0146.21–59.78safer38.76–55.6844.53–61.45
Passes
39%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction388422810safe321–455356–488676–944safer303–474338–506641–980
Pass accuracy %
25%
70%
homeawayprediction65.8170.43safe61.78–69.8466.10–74.75safer60.49–71.1364.80–76.06
Fouls
29%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9813.1724.15safe8.14–13.8110.22–16.1118.36–29.93safer7.38–14.579.48–16.8616.86–31.43
Offsides
54%
22%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.931.243.17safe0.77–3.090.15–2.330.92–5.43safer0.47–3.390.00–2.620.33–6.01
Yellow cards
34%
21%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.792.063.85safe0.74–2.840.93–3.191.67–6.03safer0.48–3.110.64–3.481.12–6.59
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.79
GK saves
38%
17%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.672.855.52safe1.23–4.111.29–4.402.52–8.51safer0.85–4.490.86–4.831.71–9.32
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.23 0.27–2.20 0.02–2.45 | 1.31 0.45–2.16 0.22–2.39 | 2.54 0.72–4.36 0.24–4.84 | 35% 27% 38% |
| Shots on target | 4.16 2.30–6.02 1.81–6.51 | 3.99 2.25–5.73 1.78–6.20 | 8.15 4.54–11.75 3.59–12.71 | 45% 14% 41% |
| Total shots | 13.13 9.20–17.05 8.11–18.14 | 11.49 7.93–15.05 6.97–16.01 | 24.62 17.13–32.10 15.08–34.15 | 59% 33% |
| Shots in box | 8.79 5.85–11.73 5.02–12.56 | 7.80 5.12–10.48 4.38–11.21 | 16.59 10.96–22.21 9.40–23.78 | 55% 36% |
| Blocked shots | 3.88 2.00–5.77 1.46–6.31 | 3.71 2.05–5.36 1.56–5.85 | 7.59 4.06–11.13 3.02–12.16 | 45% 15% 40% |
| Corners | 5.48 3.26–7.69 2.69–8.26 | 5.00 3.00–7.00 2.46–7.53 | 10.48 6.26–14.69 5.15–15.80 | 50% 38% |
| Possession % | 47.22 40.43–54.01 38.76–55.68 | 52.99 46.21–59.78 44.53–61.45 | — | 34% 61% |
| Passes | 388 321–455 303–474 | 422 356–488 338–506 | 810 676–944 641–980 | 39% 61% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.81 61.78–69.84 60.49–71.13 | 70.43 66.10–74.75 64.80–76.06 | — | 25% 70% |
| Fouls | 10.98 8.14–13.81 7.38–14.57 | 13.17 10.22–16.11 9.48–16.86 | 24.15 18.36–29.93 16.86–31.43 | 29% 63% |
| Offsides | 1.93 0.77–3.09 0.47–3.39 | 1.24 0.15–2.33 0.00–2.62 | 3.17 0.92–5.43 0.33–6.01 | 54% 22% 24% |
| Yellow cards | 1.79 0.74–2.84 0.48–3.11 | 2.06 0.93–3.19 0.64–3.48 | 3.85 1.67–6.03 1.12–6.59 | 34% 21% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.67 1.23–4.11 0.85–4.49 | 2.85 1.29–4.40 0.86–4.83 | 5.52 2.52–8.51 1.71–9.32 | 38% 17% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.