Premier League·Regular Season - 29·
Premier League·Regular Season - 29·Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
26%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.362.73safe0.40–2.340.51–2.210.91–4.55safer0.15–2.590.28–2.440.43–5.03
Shots on target
49%
13%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.794.399.18safe2.93–6.652.65–6.145.58–12.79safer2.44–7.142.19–6.604.62–13.75
Total shots
63%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction14.8412.5527.39safe10.91–18.768.99–16.1119.90–34.88safer9.82–19.868.03–17.0717.85–36.93
Shots in box
55%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction9.968.8618.82safe7.02–12.906.18–11.5413.20–24.44safer6.19–13.735.44–12.2811.63–26.01
Blocked shots
53%
14%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.133.387.51safe2.25–6.011.73–5.043.98–11.05safer1.70–6.551.24–5.532.94–12.08
Corners
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.724.4610.19safe3.51–7.942.46–6.465.97–14.40safer2.94–8.511.93–7.004.86–15.51
Possession %
84%
13%
homeawayprediction58.9941.25safe52.20–65.7834.46–48.03safer50.53–67.4532.79–49.70
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction517352870safe450–584286–419736–1003safer432–603268–436700–1039
Pass accuracy %
77%
20%
homeawayprediction75.4669.36safe71.43–79.4965.04–73.69safer70.14–80.7963.73–75.00
Fouls
30%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7913.8925.68safe8.95–14.6310.95–16.8419.90–31.46safer8.19–15.3810.20–17.5918.39–32.97
Offsides
35%
21%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.832.093.91safe0.67–2.990.99–3.181.66–6.17safer0.37–3.290.70–3.471.07–6.76
Yellow cards
25%
19%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.602.393.99safe0.55–2.651.26–3.521.81–6.16safer0.28–2.910.97–3.811.25–6.72
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.110.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.300.00–0.54safer0.00–0.390.00–0.430.00–0.82
GK saves
36%
16%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.903.306.21safe1.47–4.341.75–4.863.21–9.20safer1.08–4.731.32–5.282.40–10.01
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.37 0.40–2.34 0.15–2.59 | 1.36 0.51–2.21 0.28–2.44 | 2.73 0.91–4.55 0.43–5.03 | 37% 26% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.79 2.93–6.65 2.44–7.14 | 4.39 2.65–6.14 2.19–6.60 | 9.18 5.58–12.79 4.62–13.75 | 49% 13% 38% |
| Total shots | 14.84 10.91–18.76 9.82–19.86 | 12.55 8.99–16.11 8.03–17.07 | 27.39 19.90–34.88 17.85–36.93 | 63% 30% |
| Shots in box | 9.96 7.02–12.90 6.19–13.73 | 8.86 6.18–11.54 5.44–12.28 | 18.82 13.20–24.44 11.63–26.01 | 55% 36% |
| Blocked shots | 4.13 2.25–6.01 1.70–6.55 | 3.38 1.73–5.04 1.24–5.53 | 7.51 3.98–11.05 2.94–12.08 | 53% 14% 32% |
| Corners | 5.72 3.51–7.94 2.94–8.51 | 4.46 2.46–6.46 1.93–7.00 | 10.19 5.97–14.40 4.86–15.51 | 59% 29% |
| Possession % | 58.99 52.20–65.78 50.53–67.45 | 41.25 34.46–48.03 32.79–49.70 | — | 84% 13% |
| Passes | 517 450–584 432–603 | 352 286–419 268–436 | 870 736–1003 700–1039 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.46 71.43–79.49 70.14–80.79 | 69.36 65.04–73.69 63.73–75.00 | — | 77% 20% |
| Fouls | 11.79 8.95–14.63 8.19–15.38 | 13.89 10.95–16.84 10.20–17.59 | 25.68 19.90–31.46 18.39–32.97 | 30% 62% |
| Offsides | 1.83 0.67–2.99 0.37–3.29 | 2.09 0.99–3.18 0.70–3.47 | 3.91 1.66–6.17 1.07–6.76 | 35% 21% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 1.60 0.55–2.65 0.28–2.91 | 2.39 1.26–3.52 0.97–3.81 | 3.99 1.81–6.16 1.25–6.72 | 25% 19% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.90 1.47–4.34 1.08–4.73 | 3.30 1.75–4.86 1.32–5.28 | 6.21 3.21–9.20 2.40–10.01 | 36% 16% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.