Premier League·Regular Season - 31·
Premier League·Regular Season - 31·Predicted match statistics
Goals
34%
23%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.773.33safe0.58–2.520.92–2.631.50–5.15safer0.33–2.770.69–2.861.02–5.63
Shots on target
35%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction4.455.139.58safe2.59–6.313.39–6.875.98–13.19safer2.10–6.802.92–7.345.02–14.14
Total shots
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6513.4226.08safe8.73–16.589.86–16.9918.59–33.57safer7.64–17.678.90–17.9516.54–35.62
Shots in box
38%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction8.869.6418.49safe5.91–11.806.96–12.3212.87–24.12safer5.08–12.636.22–13.0611.30–25.68
Blocked shots
48%
15%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.743.387.12safe1.86–5.621.72–5.033.58–10.65safer1.32–6.171.23–5.522.55–11.69
Corners
49%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction5.264.8010.05safe3.05–7.472.80–6.805.84–14.27safer2.47–8.052.26–7.334.73–15.38
Possession %
29%
67%
homeawayprediction46.2454.53safe39.45–53.0347.75–61.32safer37.78–54.7046.08–62.99
Passes
30%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction424487911safe357–491421–554777–1045safer338–509403–571742–1080
Pass accuracy %
86%
homeawayprediction69.3478.26safe65.31–73.3773.94–82.58safer64.02–74.6672.63–83.89
Fouls
28%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6913.0323.73safe7.86–13.5310.09–15.9817.95–29.51safer7.10–14.299.34–16.7316.44–31.02
Offsides
17%
14%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction1.803.445.24safe0.64–2.962.35–4.542.99–7.49safer0.34–3.262.06–4.832.40–8.08
Yellow cards
25%
19%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.582.403.98safe0.53–2.631.27–3.521.80–6.15safer0.27–2.900.98–3.821.24–6.71
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.17safe0.00–0.250.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
44%
16%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.162.996.14safe1.72–4.591.43–4.543.15–9.13safer1.33–4.981.00–4.972.34–9.95
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.55 0.58–2.52 0.33–2.77 | 1.77 0.92–2.63 0.69–2.86 | 3.33 1.50–5.15 1.02–5.63 | 34% 23% 43% |
| Shots on target | 4.45 2.59–6.31 2.10–6.80 | 5.13 3.39–6.87 2.92–7.34 | 9.58 5.98–13.19 5.02–14.14 | 35% 52% |
| Total shots | 12.65 8.73–16.58 7.64–17.67 | 13.42 9.86–16.99 8.90–17.95 | 26.08 18.59–33.57 16.54–35.62 | 40% 52% |
| Shots in box | 8.86 5.91–11.80 5.08–12.63 | 9.64 6.96–12.32 6.22–13.06 | 18.49 12.87–24.12 11.30–25.68 | 38% 53% |
| Blocked shots | 3.74 1.86–5.62 1.32–6.17 | 3.38 1.72–5.03 1.23–5.52 | 7.12 3.58–10.65 2.55–11.69 | 48% 15% 37% |
| Corners | 5.26 3.05–7.47 2.47–8.05 | 4.80 2.80–6.80 2.26–7.33 | 10.05 5.84–14.27 4.73–15.38 | 49% 38% |
| Possession % | 46.24 39.45–53.03 37.78–54.70 | 54.53 47.75–61.32 46.08–62.99 | — | 29% 67% |
| Passes | 424 357–491 338–509 | 487 421–554 403–571 | 911 777–1045 742–1080 | 30% 70% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.34 65.31–73.37 64.02–74.66 | 78.26 73.94–82.58 72.63–83.89 | — | 86% |
| Fouls | 10.69 7.86–13.53 7.10–14.29 | 13.03 10.09–15.98 9.34–16.73 | 23.73 17.95–29.51 16.44–31.02 | 28% 65% |
| Offsides | 1.80 0.64–2.96 0.34–3.26 | 3.44 2.35–4.54 2.06–4.83 | 5.24 2.99–7.49 2.40–8.08 | 17% 14% 69% |
| Yellow cards | 1.58 0.53–2.63 0.27–2.90 | 2.40 1.27–3.52 0.98–3.82 | 3.98 1.80–6.15 1.24–6.71 | 25% 19% 56% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.16 1.72–4.59 1.33–4.98 | 2.99 1.43–4.54 1.00–4.97 | 6.14 3.15–9.13 2.34–9.95 | 44% 16% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.