Premier League·Regular Season - 31·
Premier League·Regular Season - 31·Predicted match statistics
Goals
21%
21%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction1.142.053.18safe0.17–2.101.19–2.901.36–5.01safer0.00–2.360.96–3.130.88–5.49
Shots on target
23%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction3.805.559.36safe1.94–5.673.81–7.305.75–12.96safer1.45–6.163.34–7.764.80–13.92
Total shots
25%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7714.7326.50safe7.85–15.7011.17–18.2919.01–33.99safer6.76–16.7910.21–19.2516.96–36.04
Shots in box
19%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction7.2410.4617.70safe4.30–10.197.78–13.1412.08–23.33safer3.47–11.027.04–13.8810.51–24.89
Blocked shots
26%
13%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction3.184.397.57safe1.30–5.062.74–6.044.04–11.11safer0.75–5.612.25–6.543.00–12.14
Corners
26%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction4.205.759.96safe1.99–6.423.75–7.755.74–14.17safer1.42–6.993.22–8.294.64–15.28
Possession %
96%
homeawayprediction34.8266.08safe28.03–41.6159.29–72.86safer26.36–43.2857.62–74.54
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction331628959safe263–398562–694825–1092safer245–416544–712789–1128
Pass accuracy %
99%
homeawayprediction65.8783.25safe61.84–69.9078.92–87.57safer60.55–71.1977.62–88.88
Fouls
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3611.5223.88safe9.52–15.208.57–14.4618.09–29.66safer8.77–15.957.82–15.2116.59–31.16
Offsides
65%
16%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction2.951.614.56safe1.79–4.110.52–2.702.30–6.81safer1.48–4.410.23–2.991.71–7.40
Yellow cards
42%
20%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.101.994.08safe1.05–3.150.86–3.121.91–6.26safer0.78–3.410.57–3.411.35–6.82
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.080.21safe0.00–0.290.00–0.270.00–0.55safer0.00–0.440.00–0.400.00–0.84
GK saves
55%
16%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.482.686.16safe2.05–4.921.12–4.233.17–9.15safer1.66–5.300.70–4.662.35–9.96
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.14 0.17–2.10 0.00–2.36 | 2.05 1.19–2.90 0.96–3.13 | 3.18 1.36–5.01 0.88–5.49 | 21% 21% 58% |
| Shots on target | 3.80 1.94–5.67 1.45–6.16 | 5.55 3.81–7.30 3.34–7.76 | 9.36 5.75–12.96 4.80–13.92 | 23% 66% |
| Total shots | 11.77 7.85–15.70 6.76–16.79 | 14.73 11.17–18.29 10.21–19.25 | 26.50 19.01–33.99 16.96–36.04 | 25% 68% |
| Shots in box | 7.24 4.30–10.19 3.47–11.02 | 10.46 7.78–13.14 7.04–13.88 | 17.70 12.08–23.33 10.51–24.89 | 19% 74% |
| Blocked shots | 3.18 1.30–5.06 0.75–5.61 | 4.39 2.74–6.04 2.25–6.54 | 7.57 4.04–11.11 3.00–12.14 | 26% 13% 60% |
| Corners | 4.20 1.99–6.42 1.42–6.99 | 5.75 3.75–7.75 3.22–8.29 | 9.96 5.74–14.17 4.64–15.28 | 26% 63% |
| Possession % | 34.82 28.03–41.61 26.36–43.28 | 66.08 59.29–72.86 57.62–74.54 | — | 96% |
| Passes | 331 263–398 245–416 | 628 562–694 544–712 | 959 825–1092 789–1128 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.87 61.84–69.90 60.55–71.19 | 83.25 78.92–87.57 77.62–88.88 | — | 99% |
| Fouls | 12.36 9.52–15.20 8.77–15.95 | 11.52 8.57–14.46 7.82–15.21 | 23.88 18.09–29.66 16.59–31.16 | 53% 39% |
| Offsides | 2.95 1.79–4.11 1.48–4.41 | 1.61 0.52–2.70 0.23–2.99 | 4.56 2.30–6.81 1.71–7.40 | 65% 16% 19% |
| Yellow cards | 2.10 1.05–3.15 0.78–3.41 | 1.99 0.86–3.12 0.57–3.41 | 4.08 1.91–6.26 1.35–6.82 | 42% 20% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.21 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.48 2.05–4.92 1.66–5.30 | 2.68 1.12–4.23 0.70–4.66 | 6.16 3.17–9.15 2.35–9.96 | 55% 16% 30% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+