Premier League·Regular Season - 31·
Premier League·Regular Season - 31·Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
26%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.252.68safe0.46–2.390.40–2.110.86–4.50safer0.21–2.650.17–2.340.38–4.98
Shots on target
51%
13%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.814.219.02safe2.95–6.682.47–5.955.42–12.63safer2.46–7.172.00–6.424.46–13.58
Total shots
73%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction15.7512.1027.85safe11.83–19.688.54–15.6620.36–35.34safer10.74–20.777.58–16.6218.31–37.39
Shots in box
51%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction9.729.1518.87safe6.77–12.666.47–11.8313.24–24.49safer5.94–13.495.73–12.5711.68–26.06
Blocked shots
52%
14%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.413.788.19safe2.53–6.292.12–5.434.65–11.72safer1.99–6.841.63–5.923.62–12.76
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction6.094.7310.82safe3.87–8.302.73–6.736.60–15.03safer3.30–8.872.20–7.265.50–16.14
Possession %
67%
29%
homeawayprediction54.0745.62safe47.28–60.8638.84–52.41safer45.61–62.5337.17–54.08
Passes
74%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction506429935safe438–573363–496801–1069safer420–591345–513766–1104
Pass accuracy %
51%
44%
homeawayprediction69.1168.41safe65.08–73.1464.09–72.74safer63.79–74.4362.78–74.04
Fouls
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7110.3521.07safe7.88–13.557.41–13.3015.28–26.85safer7.12–14.316.66–14.0513.78–28.35
Offsides
39%
26%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.391.302.70safe0.23–2.550.21–2.390.44–4.95safer0.00–2.860.00–2.680.00–5.54
Yellow cards
30%
23%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.361.763.12safe0.31–2.410.63–2.890.94–5.29safer0.04–2.670.34–3.180.38–5.85
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.390.00–0.76
GK saves
37%
17%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.863.166.02safe1.42–4.291.60–4.723.03–9.01safer1.03–4.681.18–5.142.21–9.82
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.43 0.46–2.39 0.21–2.65 | 1.25 0.40–2.11 0.17–2.34 | 2.68 0.86–4.50 0.38–4.98 | 41% 26% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.81 2.95–6.68 2.46–7.17 | 4.21 2.47–5.95 2.00–6.42 | 9.02 5.42–12.63 4.46–13.58 | 51% 13% 36% |
| Total shots | 15.75 11.83–19.68 10.74–20.77 | 12.10 8.54–15.66 7.58–16.62 | 27.85 20.36–35.34 18.31–37.39 | 73% 21% |
| Shots in box | 9.72 6.77–12.66 5.94–13.49 | 9.15 6.47–11.83 5.73–12.57 | 18.87 13.24–24.49 11.68–26.06 | 51% 40% |
| Blocked shots | 4.41 2.53–6.29 1.99–6.84 | 3.78 2.12–5.43 1.63–5.92 | 8.19 4.65–11.72 3.62–12.76 | 52% 14% 34% |
| Corners | 6.09 3.87–8.30 3.30–8.87 | 4.73 2.73–6.73 2.20–7.26 | 10.82 6.60–15.03 5.50–16.14 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 54.07 47.28–60.86 45.61–62.53 | 45.62 38.84–52.41 37.17–54.08 | — | 67% 29% |
| Passes | 506 438–573 420–591 | 429 363–496 345–513 | 935 801–1069 766–1104 | 74% 26% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.11 65.08–73.14 63.79–74.43 | 68.41 64.09–72.74 62.78–74.04 | — | 51% 44% |
| Fouls | 10.71 7.88–13.55 7.12–14.31 | 10.35 7.41–13.30 6.66–14.05 | 21.07 15.28–26.85 13.78–28.35 | 49% 43% |
| Offsides | 1.39 0.23–2.55 0.00–2.86 | 1.30 0.21–2.39 0.00–2.68 | 2.70 0.44–4.95 0.00–5.54 | 39% 26% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.36 0.31–2.41 0.04–2.67 | 1.76 0.63–2.89 0.34–3.18 | 3.12 0.94–5.29 0.38–5.85 | 30% 23% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.86 1.42–4.29 1.03–4.68 | 3.16 1.60–4.72 1.18–5.14 | 6.02 3.03–9.01 2.21–9.82 | 37% 17% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.