Premier League·Regular Season - 31·
Premier League·Regular Season - 31·Predicted match statistics
Goals
42%
27%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.351.142.48safe0.38–2.320.28–1.990.66–4.31safer0.13–2.570.05–2.220.18–4.79
Shots on target
42%
14%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.214.278.49safe2.35–6.082.53–6.014.88–12.09safer1.86–6.572.06–6.483.93–13.05
Total shots
43%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7213.1725.89safe8.79–16.649.61–16.7318.40–33.37safer7.70–17.738.65–17.6916.35–35.42
Shots in box
43%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction8.598.8217.41safe5.65–11.536.14–11.5011.79–23.03safer4.82–12.365.41–12.2410.22–24.60
Blocked shots
43%
15%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.613.577.18safe1.72–5.491.92–5.233.64–10.71safer1.18–6.031.43–5.722.61–11.75
Corners
50%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction5.214.739.94safe2.99–7.422.73–6.735.73–14.15safer2.42–7.992.20–7.274.62–15.26
Possession %
49%
46%
homeawayprediction50.4749.78safe43.68–57.2642.99–56.56safer42.01–58.9341.32–58.23
Passes
61%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction432398830safe365–500331–464696–964safer347–518314–482661–999
Pass accuracy %
37%
58%
homeawayprediction67.2169.32safe63.18–71.2465.00–73.65safer61.89–72.5363.69–74.96
Fouls
30%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9713.0324.00safe8.13–13.8010.09–15.9818.22–29.78safer7.37–14.569.34–16.7316.71–31.29
Offsides
32%
20%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.842.224.06safe0.68–3.001.13–3.321.81–6.31safer0.37–3.300.84–3.611.22–6.90
Yellow cards
26%
20%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.502.203.69safe0.45–2.551.07–3.321.51–5.87safer0.18–2.810.78–3.620.96–6.43
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.290.00–0.51safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79
GK saves
41%
17%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.892.905.79safe1.45–4.321.35–4.462.80–8.78safer1.06–4.710.92–4.881.98–9.59
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.35 0.38–2.32 0.13–2.57 | 1.14 0.28–1.99 0.05–2.22 | 2.48 0.66–4.31 0.18–4.79 | 42% 27% 31% |
| Shots on target | 4.21 2.35–6.08 1.86–6.57 | 4.27 2.53–6.01 2.06–6.48 | 8.49 4.88–12.09 3.93–13.05 | 42% 14% 44% |
| Total shots | 12.72 8.79–16.64 7.70–17.73 | 13.17 9.61–16.73 8.65–17.69 | 25.89 18.40–33.37 16.35–35.42 | 43% 50% |
| Shots in box | 8.59 5.65–11.53 4.82–12.36 | 8.82 6.14–11.50 5.41–12.24 | 17.41 11.79–23.03 10.22–24.60 | 43% 47% |
| Blocked shots | 3.61 1.72–5.49 1.18–6.03 | 3.57 1.92–5.23 1.43–5.72 | 7.18 3.64–10.71 2.61–11.75 | 43% 15% 42% |
| Corners | 5.21 2.99–7.42 2.42–7.99 | 4.73 2.73–6.73 2.20–7.27 | 9.94 5.73–14.15 4.62–15.26 | 50% 38% |
| Possession % | 50.47 43.68–57.26 42.01–58.93 | 49.78 42.99–56.56 41.32–58.23 | — | 49% 46% |
| Passes | 432 365–500 347–518 | 398 331–464 314–482 | 830 696–964 661–999 | 61% 38% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.21 63.18–71.24 61.89–72.53 | 69.32 65.00–73.65 63.69–74.96 | — | 37% 58% |
| Fouls | 10.97 8.13–13.80 7.37–14.56 | 13.03 10.09–15.98 9.34–16.73 | 24.00 18.22–29.78 16.71–31.29 | 30% 63% |
| Offsides | 1.84 0.68–3.00 0.37–3.30 | 2.22 1.13–3.32 0.84–3.61 | 4.06 1.81–6.31 1.22–6.90 | 32% 20% 47% |
| Yellow cards | 1.50 0.45–2.55 0.18–2.81 | 2.20 1.07–3.32 0.78–3.62 | 3.69 1.51–5.87 0.96–6.43 | 26% 20% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.89 1.45–4.32 1.06–4.71 | 2.90 1.35–4.46 0.92–4.88 | 5.79 2.80–8.78 1.98–9.59 | 41% 17% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.