Premier League·Regular Season - 31·
Premier League·Regular Season - 31·Predicted match statistics
Goals
58%
23%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction1.790.912.70safe0.82–2.760.06–1.770.88–4.53safer0.57–3.010.00–2.000.40–5.01
Shots on target
77%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction6.033.269.29safe4.17–7.891.51–5.005.68–12.89safer3.68–8.381.05–5.464.73–13.85
Total shots
93%
homeawaytotalprediction17.579.3726.94safe13.65–21.505.81–12.9319.46–34.43safer12.56–22.594.85–13.8917.41–36.48
Shots in box
85%
homeawaytotalprediction11.336.4617.79safe8.39–14.273.78–9.1412.17–23.41safer7.56–15.103.04–9.8810.60–24.98
Blocked shots
75%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction5.583.068.64safe3.70–7.461.41–4.725.11–12.18safer3.16–8.010.92–5.214.07–13.21
Corners
81%
homeawaytotalprediction6.963.6010.56safe4.75–9.171.60–5.606.34–14.77safer4.17–9.751.07–6.135.24–15.88
Possession %
97%
homeawayprediction66.7232.61safe59.93–73.5125.83–39.40safer58.26–75.1824.16–41.07
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction653310963safe586–720244–377830–1097safer568–738226–394794–1133
Pass accuracy %
94%
homeawayprediction79.5666.94safe75.53–83.5962.62–71.27safer74.24–84.8961.31–72.58
Fouls
27%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction8.8811.0719.96safe6.05–11.728.13–14.0214.18–25.74safer5.29–12.487.38–14.7712.67–27.24
Offsides
49%
22%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.931.443.37safe0.77–3.100.34–2.531.12–5.63safer0.47–3.400.06–2.820.53–6.21
Yellow cards
21%
20%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction1.292.273.55safe0.24–2.341.14–3.391.37–5.73safer0.00–2.600.85–3.690.82–6.29
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.090.13safe0.00–0.210.00–0.270.00–0.48safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.76
GK saves
16%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction2.244.256.48safe0.80–3.672.69–5.803.49–9.47safer0.41–4.062.26–6.232.68–10.29
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.79 0.82–2.76 0.57–3.01 | 0.91 0.06–1.77 0.00–2.00 | 2.70 0.88–4.53 0.40–5.01 | 58% 23% 19% |
| Shots on target | 6.03 4.17–7.89 3.68–8.38 | 3.26 1.51–5.00 1.05–5.46 | 9.29 5.68–12.89 4.73–13.85 | 77% 14% |
| Total shots | 17.57 13.65–21.50 12.56–22.59 | 9.37 5.81–12.93 4.85–13.89 | 26.94 19.46–34.43 17.41–36.48 | 93% |
| Shots in box | 11.33 8.39–14.27 7.56–15.10 | 6.46 3.78–9.14 3.04–9.88 | 17.79 12.17–23.41 10.60–24.98 | 85% |
| Blocked shots | 5.58 3.70–7.46 3.16–8.01 | 3.06 1.41–4.72 0.92–5.21 | 8.64 5.11–12.18 4.07–13.21 | 75% 15% |
| Corners | 6.96 4.75–9.17 4.17–9.75 | 3.60 1.60–5.60 1.07–6.13 | 10.56 6.34–14.77 5.24–15.88 | 81% |
| Possession % | 66.72 59.93–73.51 58.26–75.18 | 32.61 25.83–39.40 24.16–41.07 | — | 97% |
| Passes | 653 586–720 568–738 | 310 244–377 226–394 | 963 830–1097 794–1133 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.56 75.53–83.59 74.24–84.89 | 66.94 62.62–71.27 61.31–72.58 | — | 94% |
| Fouls | 8.88 6.05–11.72 5.29–12.48 | 11.07 8.13–14.02 7.38–14.77 | 19.96 14.18–25.74 12.67–27.24 | 27% 65% |
| Offsides | 1.93 0.77–3.10 0.47–3.40 | 1.44 0.34–2.53 0.06–2.82 | 3.37 1.12–5.63 0.53–6.21 | 49% 22% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.29 0.24–2.34 0.00–2.60 | 2.27 1.14–3.39 0.85–3.69 | 3.55 1.37–5.73 0.82–6.29 | 21% 20% 59% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.24 0.80–3.67 0.41–4.06 | 4.25 2.69–5.80 2.26–6.23 | 6.48 3.49–9.47 2.68–10.29 | 16% 72% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.