Premier League·Regular Season - 31·
Premier League·Regular Season - 31·Predicted match statistics
Goals
38%
26%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.311.282.59safe0.35–2.280.42–2.130.77–4.41safer0.09–2.530.19–2.360.29–4.89
Shots on target
44%
14%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.294.198.47safe2.43–6.152.44–5.934.87–12.08safer1.94–6.641.98–6.393.91–13.04
Total shots
59%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0312.3126.34safe10.10–17.958.75–15.8818.85–33.83safer9.01–19.047.79–16.8416.80–35.88
Shots in box
59%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction9.237.7817.01safe6.29–12.175.10–10.4711.39–22.64safer5.46–13.004.37–11.209.82–24.20
Blocked shots
51%
15%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.053.457.50safe2.17–5.931.80–5.113.97–11.04safer1.62–6.471.31–5.602.93–12.07
Corners
55%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.634.7210.35safe3.42–7.852.72–6.726.14–14.57safer2.85–8.422.19–7.255.03–15.67
Possession %
35%
61%
homeawayprediction47.3453.09safe40.55–54.1346.30–59.87safer38.88–55.8044.63–61.54
Passes
34%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction398447845safe330–465381–514711–978safer312–483363–531675–1014
Pass accuracy %
32%
63%
homeawayprediction69.2872.44safe65.25–73.3068.11–76.76safer63.95–74.6066.81–78.07
Fouls
40%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9712.7924.76safe9.13–14.819.84–15.7318.98–30.54safer8.38–15.569.09–16.4817.47–32.05
Offsides
46%
24%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.292.94safe0.50–2.820.19–2.380.69–5.20safer0.20–3.120.00–2.670.10–5.79
Yellow cards
36%
20%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.942.134.07safe0.89–2.991.00–3.261.89–6.25safer0.63–3.260.71–3.551.34–6.81
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.080.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.270.00–0.51safer0.00–0.390.00–0.400.00–0.80
GK saves
37%
17%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.702.975.67safe1.27–4.141.41–4.522.68–8.66safer0.88–4.530.99–4.951.87–9.48
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.31 0.35–2.28 0.09–2.53 | 1.28 0.42–2.13 0.19–2.36 | 2.59 0.77–4.41 0.29–4.89 | 38% 26% 36% |
| Shots on target | 4.29 2.43–6.15 1.94–6.64 | 4.19 2.44–5.93 1.98–6.39 | 8.47 4.87–12.08 3.91–13.04 | 44% 14% 42% |
| Total shots | 14.03 10.10–17.95 9.01–19.04 | 12.31 8.75–15.88 7.79–16.84 | 26.34 18.85–33.83 16.80–35.88 | 59% 33% |
| Shots in box | 9.23 6.29–12.17 5.46–13.00 | 7.78 5.10–10.47 4.37–11.20 | 17.01 11.39–22.64 9.82–24.20 | 59% 32% |
| Blocked shots | 4.05 2.17–5.93 1.62–6.47 | 3.45 1.80–5.11 1.31–5.60 | 7.50 3.97–11.04 2.93–12.07 | 51% 15% 34% |
| Corners | 5.63 3.42–7.85 2.85–8.42 | 4.72 2.72–6.72 2.19–7.25 | 10.35 6.14–14.57 5.03–15.67 | 55% 33% |
| Possession % | 47.34 40.55–54.13 38.88–55.80 | 53.09 46.30–59.87 44.63–61.54 | — | 35% 61% |
| Passes | 398 330–465 312–483 | 447 381–514 363–531 | 845 711–978 675–1014 | 34% 66% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.28 65.25–73.30 63.95–74.60 | 72.44 68.11–76.76 66.81–78.07 | — | 32% 63% |
| Fouls | 11.97 9.13–14.81 8.38–15.56 | 12.79 9.84–15.73 9.09–16.48 | 24.76 18.98–30.54 17.47–32.05 | 40% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.66 0.50–2.82 0.20–3.12 | 1.29 0.19–2.38 0.00–2.67 | 2.94 0.69–5.20 0.10–5.79 | 46% 24% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.94 0.89–2.99 0.63–3.26 | 2.13 1.00–3.26 0.71–3.55 | 4.07 1.89–6.25 1.34–6.81 | 36% 20% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.70 1.27–4.14 0.88–4.53 | 2.97 1.41–4.52 0.99–4.95 | 5.67 2.68–8.66 1.87–9.48 | 37% 17% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.