Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
24%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.302.90safe0.63–2.570.44–2.151.07–4.72safer0.38–2.820.22–2.380.59–5.20
Shots on target
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.434.039.46safe3.57–7.292.28–5.775.85–13.06safer3.08–7.781.82–6.234.90–14.02
Total shots
78%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction15.8011.2127.02safe11.88–19.737.65–14.7819.53–34.50safer10.79–20.826.69–15.7417.48–36.55
Shots in box
69%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction11.148.4519.59safe8.20–14.095.76–11.1313.97–25.21safer7.37–14.925.03–11.8612.40–26.78
Blocked shots
62%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.843.468.30safe2.95–6.721.81–5.124.76–11.84safer2.41–7.261.32–5.613.73–12.87
Corners
69%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction6.554.4210.97safe4.34–8.772.42–6.426.76–15.19safer3.77–9.341.88–6.955.65–16.29
Possession %
85%
homeawayprediction59.2340.67safe52.44–66.0233.89–47.46safer50.77–67.6932.22–49.13
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction523358881safe456–590291–424747–1014safer437–608274–442711–1050
Pass accuracy %
79%
17%
homeawayprediction76.8169.96safe72.78–80.8465.64–74.29safer71.49–82.1364.33–75.60
Fouls
30%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6312.6923.32safe7.79–13.479.75–15.6317.54–29.10safer7.04–14.229.00–16.3816.03–30.61
Offsides
47%
21%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction2.121.753.87safe0.96–3.280.66–2.851.62–6.12safer0.65–3.580.37–3.131.03–6.71
Yellow cards
27%
21%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.532.173.70safe0.48–2.581.04–3.301.52–5.87safer0.21–2.840.75–3.590.96–6.43
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.090.15safe0.00–0.210.00–0.280.00–0.49safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
29%
16%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.663.526.18safe1.22–4.091.96–5.073.18–9.17safer0.83–4.481.54–5.502.37–9.98
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.60 0.63–2.57 0.38–2.82 | 1.30 0.44–2.15 0.22–2.38 | 2.90 1.07–4.72 0.59–5.20 | 44% 24% 31% |
| Shots on target | 5.43 3.57–7.29 3.08–7.78 | 4.03 2.28–5.77 1.82–6.23 | 9.46 5.85–13.06 4.90–14.02 | 61% 27% |
| Total shots | 15.80 11.88–19.73 10.79–20.82 | 11.21 7.65–14.78 6.69–15.74 | 27.02 19.53–34.50 17.48–36.55 | 78% 16% |
| Shots in box | 11.14 8.20–14.09 7.37–14.92 | 8.45 5.76–11.13 5.03–11.86 | 19.59 13.97–25.21 12.40–26.78 | 69% 23% |
| Blocked shots | 4.84 2.95–6.72 2.41–7.26 | 3.46 1.81–5.12 1.32–5.61 | 8.30 4.76–11.84 3.73–12.87 | 62% 26% |
| Corners | 6.55 4.34–8.77 3.77–9.34 | 4.42 2.42–6.42 1.88–6.95 | 10.97 6.76–15.19 5.65–16.29 | 69% 21% |
| Possession % | 59.23 52.44–66.02 50.77–67.69 | 40.67 33.89–47.46 32.22–49.13 | — | 85% |
| Passes | 523 456–590 437–608 | 358 291–424 274–442 | 881 747–1014 711–1050 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.81 72.78–80.84 71.49–82.13 | 69.96 65.64–74.29 64.33–75.60 | — | 79% 17% |
| Fouls | 10.63 7.79–13.47 7.04–14.22 | 12.69 9.75–15.63 9.00–16.38 | 23.32 17.54–29.10 16.03–30.61 | 30% 63% |
| Offsides | 2.12 0.96–3.28 0.65–3.58 | 1.75 0.66–2.85 0.37–3.13 | 3.87 1.62–6.12 1.03–6.71 | 47% 21% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 1.53 0.48–2.58 0.21–2.84 | 2.17 1.04–3.30 0.75–3.59 | 3.70 1.52–5.87 0.96–6.43 | 27% 21% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.66 1.22–4.09 0.83–4.48 | 3.52 1.96–5.07 1.54–5.50 | 6.18 3.18–9.17 2.37–9.98 | 29% 16% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.