Premier League·Regular Season - 32·
Premier League·Regular Season - 32·Predicted match statistics
Goals
66%
19%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction2.150.923.06safe1.18–3.120.06–1.771.24–4.89safer0.93–3.370.00–2.000.76–5.37
Shots on target
73%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction5.893.569.45safe4.03–7.761.82–5.305.85–13.06safer3.54–8.251.35–5.774.89–14.01
Total shots
79%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction15.5610.9526.51safe11.63–19.487.39–14.5219.03–34.00safer10.54–20.576.43–15.4816.97–36.05
Shots in box
82%
homeawaytotalprediction11.376.9318.30safe8.43–14.324.25–9.6112.68–23.92safer7.60–15.143.51–10.3511.11–25.49
Blocked shots
60%
14%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.363.187.54safe2.48–6.251.53–4.834.01–11.08safer1.94–6.791.03–5.322.97–12.11
Corners
77%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction6.293.509.79safe4.08–8.501.50–5.505.58–14.01safer3.50–9.080.97–6.044.47–15.11
Possession %
71%
25%
homeawayprediction55.6245.17safe48.83–62.4138.39–51.96safer47.16–64.0836.72–53.63
Passes
82%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction517404921safe450–584338–471788–1055safer431–602320–488752–1091
Pass accuracy %
62%
33%
homeawayprediction76.0273.06safe71.99–80.0568.73–77.38safer70.70–81.3467.43–78.69
Fouls
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1112.6123.71safe8.27–13.959.66–15.5517.93–29.50safer7.52–14.708.91–16.3016.43–31.00
Offsides
75%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction3.041.164.20safe1.88–4.200.07–2.261.95–6.45safer1.57–4.500.00–2.551.36–7.04
Yellow cards
24%
19%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.522.363.88safe0.47–2.571.23–3.491.70–6.06safer0.20–2.830.94–3.781.14–6.62
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.090.15safe0.00–0.210.00–0.280.00–0.49safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
23%
15%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction2.363.636.00safe0.93–3.802.07–5.193.00–8.99safer0.54–4.191.65–5.612.19–9.80
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.15 1.18–3.12 0.93–3.37 | 0.92 0.06–1.77 0.00–2.00 | 3.06 1.24–4.89 0.76–5.37 | 66% 19% 15% |
| Shots on target | 5.89 4.03–7.76 3.54–8.25 | 3.56 1.82–5.30 1.35–5.77 | 9.45 5.85–13.06 4.89–14.01 | 73% 18% |
| Total shots | 15.56 11.63–19.48 10.54–20.57 | 10.95 7.39–14.52 6.43–15.48 | 26.51 19.03–34.00 16.97–36.05 | 79% 16% |
| Shots in box | 11.37 8.43–14.32 7.60–15.14 | 6.93 4.25–9.61 3.51–10.35 | 18.30 12.68–23.92 11.11–25.49 | 82% |
| Blocked shots | 4.36 2.48–6.25 1.94–6.79 | 3.18 1.53–4.83 1.03–5.32 | 7.54 4.01–11.08 2.97–12.11 | 60% 14% 27% |
| Corners | 6.29 4.08–8.50 3.50–9.08 | 3.50 1.50–5.50 0.97–6.04 | 9.79 5.58–14.01 4.47–15.11 | 77% 14% |
| Possession % | 55.62 48.83–62.41 47.16–64.08 | 45.17 38.39–51.96 36.72–53.63 | — | 71% 25% |
| Passes | 517 450–584 431–602 | 404 338–471 320–488 | 921 788–1055 752–1091 | 82% 17% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.02 71.99–80.05 70.70–81.34 | 73.06 68.73–77.38 67.43–78.69 | — | 62% 33% |
| Fouls | 11.11 8.27–13.95 7.52–14.70 | 12.61 9.66–15.55 8.91–16.30 | 23.71 17.93–29.50 16.43–31.00 | 34% 58% |
| Offsides | 3.04 1.88–4.20 1.57–4.50 | 1.16 0.07–2.26 0.00–2.55 | 4.20 1.95–6.45 1.36–7.04 | 75% 14% |
| Yellow cards | 1.52 0.47–2.57 0.20–2.83 | 2.36 1.23–3.49 0.94–3.78 | 3.88 1.70–6.06 1.14–6.62 | 24% 19% 56% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.36 0.93–3.80 0.54–4.19 | 3.63 2.07–5.19 1.65–5.61 | 6.00 3.00–8.99 2.19–9.80 | 23% 15% 62% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.