Premier League·Regular Season - 32·
Premier League·Regular Season - 32·Predicted match statistics
Goals
35%
27%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.221.302.52safe0.25–2.190.45–2.150.70–4.34safer0.00–2.440.22–2.380.22–4.82
Shots on target
38%
14%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.874.278.14safe2.01–5.742.53–6.014.53–11.75safer1.52–6.222.06–6.483.58–12.70
Total shots
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3713.2425.61safe8.44–16.299.68–16.8018.12–33.09safer7.35–17.388.72–17.7616.07–35.14
Shots in box
40%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction7.858.3216.17safe4.91–10.805.64–11.0010.55–21.79safer4.08–11.634.90–11.738.98–23.36
Blocked shots
36%
14%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction3.574.077.64safe1.69–5.452.41–5.724.10–11.17safer1.14–5.991.92–6.213.06–12.21
Corners
44%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction5.145.1310.27safe2.93–7.363.13–7.136.06–14.49safer2.36–7.932.60–7.664.95–15.59
Possession %
33%
63%
homeawayprediction46.6553.20safe39.86–53.4446.42–59.99safer38.19–55.1144.75–61.66
Passes
32%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction406463870safe339–473397–530736–1003safer321–492379–547700–1039
Pass accuracy %
89%
homeawayprediction63.7173.63safe59.68–67.7469.31–77.96safer58.39–69.0368.00–79.27
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3112.1423.45safe8.47–14.159.20–15.0917.67–29.23safer7.71–14.908.45–15.8416.16–30.74
Offsides
44%
25%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.282.86safe0.41–2.730.19–2.380.60–5.11safer0.11–3.040.00–2.670.02–5.70
Yellow cards
34%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.963.67safe0.66–2.760.83–3.091.49–5.85safer0.40–3.030.54–3.380.94–6.41
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
48%
17%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.942.555.48safe1.50–4.370.99–4.102.49–8.47safer1.11–4.760.57–4.531.68–9.29
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.22 0.25–2.19 0.00–2.44 | 1.30 0.45–2.15 0.22–2.38 | 2.52 0.70–4.34 0.22–4.82 | 35% 27% 38% |
| Shots on target | 3.87 2.01–5.74 1.52–6.22 | 4.27 2.53–6.01 2.06–6.48 | 8.14 4.53–11.75 3.58–12.70 | 38% 14% 48% |
| Total shots | 12.37 8.44–16.29 7.35–17.38 | 13.24 9.68–16.80 8.72–17.76 | 25.61 18.12–33.09 16.07–35.14 | 39% 53% |
| Shots in box | 7.85 4.91–10.80 4.08–11.63 | 8.32 5.64–11.00 4.90–11.73 | 16.17 10.55–21.79 8.98–23.36 | 40% 50% |
| Blocked shots | 3.57 1.69–5.45 1.14–5.99 | 4.07 2.41–5.72 1.92–6.21 | 7.64 4.10–11.17 3.06–12.21 | 36% 14% 50% |
| Corners | 5.14 2.93–7.36 2.36–7.93 | 5.13 3.13–7.13 2.60–7.66 | 10.27 6.06–14.49 4.95–15.59 | 44% 44% |
| Possession % | 46.65 39.86–53.44 38.19–55.11 | 53.20 46.42–59.99 44.75–61.66 | — | 33% 63% |
| Passes | 406 339–473 321–492 | 463 397–530 379–547 | 870 736–1003 700–1039 | 32% 68% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.71 59.68–67.74 58.39–69.03 | 73.63 69.31–77.96 68.00–79.27 | — | 89% |
| Fouls | 11.31 8.47–14.15 7.71–14.90 | 12.14 9.20–15.09 8.45–15.84 | 23.45 17.67–29.23 16.16–30.74 | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.57 0.41–2.73 0.11–3.04 | 1.28 0.19–2.38 0.00–2.67 | 2.86 0.60–5.11 0.02–5.70 | 44% 25% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.71 0.66–2.76 0.40–3.03 | 1.96 0.83–3.09 0.54–3.38 | 3.67 1.49–5.85 0.94–6.41 | 34% 22% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.94 1.50–4.37 1.11–4.76 | 2.55 0.99–4.10 0.57–4.53 | 5.48 2.49–8.47 1.68–9.29 | 48% 17% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.