Premier League·Regular Season - 32·
Premier League·Regular Season - 32·Predicted match statistics
Goals
40%
26%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.421.302.73safe0.46–2.390.45–2.160.90–4.55safer0.20–2.640.22–2.390.42–5.03
Shots on target
44%
14%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.174.118.28safe2.30–6.032.37–5.864.67–11.88safer1.81–6.521.91–6.323.72–12.84
Total shots
57%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8012.4526.25safe9.88–17.738.89–16.0118.77–33.74safer8.79–18.827.93–16.9716.71–35.79
Shots in box
46%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction8.908.8417.74safe5.96–11.846.16–11.5212.12–23.37safer5.13–12.675.43–12.2610.55–24.93
Blocked shots
52%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.423.808.22safe2.54–6.312.14–5.454.69–11.76safer2.00–6.851.65–5.943.65–12.79
Corners
60%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.744.4610.21safe3.53–7.962.46–6.475.99–14.42safer2.96–8.531.93–7.004.89–15.53
Possession %
83%
14%
homeawayprediction58.7241.50safe51.93–65.5134.71–48.28safer50.26–67.1833.04–49.96
Passes
93%
homeawaytotalprediction546369915safe478–613303–436781–1049safer460–631285–453745–1084
Pass accuracy %
69%
27%
homeawayprediction73.4769.12safe69.44–77.5064.79–73.44safer68.15–78.8063.48–74.75
Fouls
44%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7111.9023.61safe8.87–14.558.95–14.8417.82–29.39safer8.12–15.308.20–15.5916.32–30.89
Offsides
22%
22%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.181.983.16safe0.02–2.340.88–3.070.90–5.41safer0.00–2.640.60–3.360.32–6.00
Yellow cards
34%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.853.47safe0.57–2.660.73–2.981.29–5.65safer0.30–2.930.43–3.270.73–6.20
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.260.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
37%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.652.905.54safe1.21–4.081.34–4.452.55–8.54safer0.82–4.470.91–4.881.74–9.35
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.42 0.46–2.39 0.20–2.64 | 1.30 0.45–2.16 0.22–2.39 | 2.73 0.90–4.55 0.42–5.03 | 40% 26% 34% |
| Shots on target | 4.17 2.30–6.03 1.81–6.52 | 4.11 2.37–5.86 1.91–6.32 | 8.28 4.67–11.88 3.72–12.84 | 44% 14% 42% |
| Total shots | 13.80 9.88–17.73 8.79–18.82 | 12.45 8.89–16.01 7.93–16.97 | 26.25 18.77–33.74 16.71–35.79 | 57% 36% |
| Shots in box | 8.90 5.96–11.84 5.13–12.67 | 8.84 6.16–11.52 5.43–12.26 | 17.74 12.12–23.37 10.55–24.93 | 46% 45% |
| Blocked shots | 4.42 2.54–6.31 2.00–6.85 | 3.80 2.14–5.45 1.65–5.94 | 8.22 4.69–11.76 3.65–12.79 | 52% 14% 35% |
| Corners | 5.74 3.53–7.96 2.96–8.53 | 4.46 2.46–6.47 1.93–7.00 | 10.21 5.99–14.42 4.89–15.53 | 60% 29% |
| Possession % | 58.72 51.93–65.51 50.26–67.18 | 41.50 34.71–48.28 33.04–49.96 | — | 83% 14% |
| Passes | 546 478–613 460–631 | 369 303–436 285–453 | 915 781–1049 745–1084 | 93% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.47 69.44–77.50 68.15–78.80 | 69.12 64.79–73.44 63.48–74.75 | — | 69% 27% |
| Fouls | 11.71 8.87–14.55 8.12–15.30 | 11.90 8.95–14.84 8.20–15.59 | 23.61 17.82–29.39 16.32–30.89 | 44% 47% |
| Offsides | 1.18 0.02–2.34 0.00–2.64 | 1.98 0.88–3.07 0.60–3.36 | 3.16 0.90–5.41 0.32–6.00 | 22% 22% 56% |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 0.57–2.66 0.30–2.93 | 1.85 0.73–2.98 0.43–3.27 | 3.47 1.29–5.65 0.73–6.20 | 34% 22% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.65 1.21–4.08 0.82–4.47 | 2.90 1.34–4.45 0.91–4.88 | 5.54 2.55–8.54 1.74–9.35 | 37% 17% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+