Premier League·Regular Season - 32·
Premier League·Regular Season - 32·Predicted match statistics
Goals
20%
20%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction1.202.153.35safe0.23–2.161.30–3.011.52–5.17safer0.00–2.411.07–3.231.04–5.65
Shots on target
19%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction3.926.1810.10safe2.06–5.784.44–7.926.50–13.71safer1.57–6.273.97–8.395.54–14.66
Total shots
20%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4116.4128.82safe8.49–16.3312.85–19.9721.34–36.31safer7.39–17.4311.89–20.9319.28–38.36
Shots in box
21%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction7.8610.7618.62safe4.92–10.808.08–13.4413.00–24.25safer4.09–11.637.34–14.1811.43–25.81
Blocked shots
29%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction3.834.978.81safe1.95–5.723.32–6.635.27–12.34safer1.41–6.262.83–7.124.24–13.38
Corners
29%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction4.675.9310.60safe2.46–6.883.93–7.936.38–14.81safer1.88–7.463.39–8.465.28–15.92
Possession %
21%
75%
homeawayprediction43.8156.35safe37.02–50.6049.57–63.14safer35.35–52.2747.90–64.81
Passes
19%
81%
homeawaytotalprediction427533960safe360–494467–600827–1094safer342–512449–617791–1130
Pass accuracy %
88%
homeawayprediction69.0678.73safe65.03–73.0974.40–83.05safer63.74–74.3973.09–84.36
Fouls
54%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0910.1021.19safe8.26–13.937.15–13.0415.41–26.97safer7.50–14.696.40–13.7913.91–28.48
Offsides
37%
23%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.683.29safe0.45–2.770.58–2.771.03–5.54safer0.15–3.070.30–3.060.45–6.13
Yellow cards
45%
22%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.921.633.55safe0.87–2.970.50–2.761.37–5.73safer0.61–3.240.21–3.050.81–6.28
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.060.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.250.00–0.47safer0.00–0.370.00–0.380.00–0.76
GK saves
61%
14%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction4.012.766.78safe2.58–5.451.21–4.323.79–9.77safer2.19–5.840.78–4.742.97–10.58
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.20 0.23–2.16 0.00–2.41 | 2.15 1.30–3.01 1.07–3.23 | 3.35 1.52–5.17 1.04–5.65 | 20% 20% 59% |
| Shots on target | 3.92 2.06–5.78 1.57–6.27 | 6.18 4.44–7.92 3.97–8.39 | 10.10 6.50–13.71 5.54–14.66 | 19% 71% |
| Total shots | 12.41 8.49–16.33 7.39–17.43 | 16.41 12.85–19.97 11.89–20.93 | 28.82 21.34–36.31 19.28–38.36 | 20% 74% |
| Shots in box | 7.86 4.92–10.80 4.09–11.63 | 10.76 8.08–13.44 7.34–14.18 | 18.62 13.00–24.25 11.43–25.81 | 21% 71% |
| Blocked shots | 3.83 1.95–5.72 1.41–6.26 | 4.97 3.32–6.63 2.83–7.12 | 8.81 5.27–12.34 4.24–13.38 | 29% 58% |
| Corners | 4.67 2.46–6.88 1.88–7.46 | 5.93 3.93–7.93 3.39–8.46 | 10.60 6.38–14.81 5.28–15.92 | 29% 59% |
| Possession % | 43.81 37.02–50.60 35.35–52.27 | 56.35 49.57–63.14 47.90–64.81 | — | 21% 75% |
| Passes | 427 360–494 342–512 | 533 467–600 449–617 | 960 827–1094 791–1130 | 19% 81% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.06 65.03–73.09 63.74–74.39 | 78.73 74.40–83.05 73.09–84.36 | — | 88% |
| Fouls | 11.09 8.26–13.93 7.50–14.69 | 10.10 7.15–13.04 6.40–13.79 | 21.19 15.41–26.97 13.91–28.48 | 54% 37% |
| Offsides | 1.61 0.45–2.77 0.15–3.07 | 1.68 0.58–2.77 0.30–3.06 | 3.29 1.03–5.54 0.45–6.13 | 37% 23% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.92 0.87–2.97 0.61–3.24 | 1.63 0.50–2.76 0.21–3.05 | 3.55 1.37–5.73 0.81–6.28 | 45% 22% 33% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.38 | 0.13 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 4.01 2.58–5.45 2.19–5.84 | 2.76 1.21–4.32 0.78–4.74 | 6.78 3.79–9.77 2.97–10.58 | 61% 14% 25% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.