Premier League·Regular Season - 32·
Premier League·Regular Season - 32·Predicted match statistics
Goals
74%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction2.580.863.44safe1.61–3.550.01–1.711.62–5.26safer1.36–3.800.00–1.941.14–5.74
Shots on target
83%
homeawaytotalprediction6.823.2910.11safe4.96–8.681.55–5.046.51–13.72safer4.47–9.171.09–5.505.55–14.68
Total shots
96%
homeawaytotalprediction18.618.9827.59safe14.69–22.545.41–12.5420.10–35.08safer13.60–23.634.45–13.5018.05–37.13
Shots in box
89%
homeawaytotalprediction12.346.5918.93safe9.40–15.293.91–9.2713.31–24.56safer8.57–16.123.17–10.0111.74–26.12
Blocked shots
85%
homeawaytotalprediction5.272.037.30safe3.38–7.150.38–3.693.76–10.83safer2.84–7.690.00–4.182.73–11.87
Corners
86%
homeawaytotalprediction7.453.4910.94safe5.23–9.661.49–5.496.72–15.15safer4.66–10.230.95–6.025.62–16.26
Possession %
97%
homeawayprediction66.0333.32safe59.24–72.8226.53–40.10safer57.57–74.4924.86–41.77
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction6803291008safe612–747262–395874–1142safer594–765245–413839–1178
Pass accuracy %
91%
homeawayprediction81.1070.06safe77.07–85.1365.74–74.39safer75.78–86.4364.43–75.69
Fouls
30%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction9.2511.1120.36safe6.41–12.088.17–14.0614.57–26.14safer5.65–12.847.42–14.8013.07–27.64
Offsides
15%
15%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction1.362.944.31safe0.20–2.521.85–4.032.05–6.56safer0.00–2.831.56–4.321.46–7.15
Yellow cards
24%
24%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.101.712.81safe0.05–2.150.58–2.840.63–4.99safer0.00–2.420.29–3.130.08–5.55
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.070.12safe0.00–0.210.00–0.260.00–0.47safer0.00–0.360.00–0.390.00–0.75
GK saves
18%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction2.234.036.26safe0.80–3.672.47–5.583.27–9.25safer0.41–4.062.05–6.012.46–10.07
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.58 1.61–3.55 1.36–3.80 | 0.86 0.01–1.71 0.00–1.94 | 3.44 1.62–5.26 1.14–5.74 | 74% 15% |
| Shots on target | 6.82 4.96–8.68 4.47–9.17 | 3.29 1.55–5.04 1.09–5.50 | 10.11 6.51–13.72 5.55–14.68 | 83% |
| Total shots | 18.61 14.69–22.54 13.60–23.63 | 8.98 5.41–12.54 4.45–13.50 | 27.59 20.10–35.08 18.05–37.13 | 96% |
| Shots in box | 12.34 9.40–15.29 8.57–16.12 | 6.59 3.91–9.27 3.17–10.01 | 18.93 13.31–24.56 11.74–26.12 | 89% |
| Blocked shots | 5.27 3.38–7.15 2.84–7.69 | 2.03 0.38–3.69 0.00–4.18 | 7.30 3.76–10.83 2.73–11.87 | 85% |
| Corners | 7.45 5.23–9.66 4.66–10.23 | 3.49 1.49–5.49 0.95–6.02 | 10.94 6.72–15.15 5.62–16.26 | 86% |
| Possession % | 66.03 59.24–72.82 57.57–74.49 | 33.32 26.53–40.10 24.86–41.77 | — | 97% |
| Passes | 680 612–747 594–765 | 329 262–395 245–413 | 1008 874–1142 839–1178 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.10 77.07–85.13 75.78–86.43 | 70.06 65.74–74.39 64.43–75.69 | — | 91% |
| Fouls | 9.25 6.41–12.08 5.65–12.84 | 11.11 8.17–14.06 7.42–14.80 | 20.36 14.57–26.14 13.07–27.64 | 30% 62% |
| Offsides | 1.36 0.20–2.52 0.00–2.83 | 2.94 1.85–4.03 1.56–4.32 | 4.31 2.05–6.56 1.46–7.15 | 15% 15% 70% |
| Yellow cards | 1.10 0.05–2.15 0.00–2.42 | 1.71 0.58–2.84 0.29–3.13 | 2.81 0.63–4.99 0.08–5.55 | 24% 24% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.75 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.23 0.80–3.67 0.41–4.06 | 4.03 2.47–5.58 2.05–6.01 | 6.26 3.27–9.25 2.46–10.07 | 18% 70% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.