Predicted match statistics
Goals
36%
24%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.532.99safe0.49–2.430.68–2.391.17–4.82safer0.24–2.680.45–2.620.69–5.29
Shots on target
37%
13%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.434.959.38safe2.57–6.293.21–6.695.77–12.98safer2.08–6.782.74–7.164.82–13.94
Total shots
28%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0515.5928.64safe9.12–16.9712.03–19.1621.16–36.13safer8.03–18.0611.07–20.1219.10–38.18
Shots in box
31%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction8.8010.4919.29safe5.86–11.747.81–13.1813.67–24.92safer5.03–12.577.08–13.9112.10–26.48
Blocked shots
28%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction3.835.018.84safe1.95–5.713.36–6.665.30–12.37safer1.40–6.262.86–7.154.27–13.41
Corners
39%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction5.155.5710.71safe2.93–7.363.57–7.576.50–14.93safer2.36–7.943.03–8.105.39–16.03
Possession %
25%
71%
homeawayprediction45.2455.39safe38.45–52.0348.61–62.18safer36.78–53.7046.94–63.85
Passes
25%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction417498915safe350–484431–564781–1049safer332–503414–582746–1084
Pass accuracy %
89%
homeawayprediction70.3280.51safe66.29–74.3576.18–84.83safer65.00–75.6474.87–86.14
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7211.7623.48safe8.88–14.568.81–14.7017.70–29.26safer8.13–15.318.06–15.4516.19–30.76
Offsides
46%
22%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.961.603.56safe0.80–3.120.51–2.691.31–5.82safer0.50–3.420.22–2.980.72–6.40
Yellow cards
34%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.752.003.75safe0.70–2.800.87–3.131.57–5.93safer0.44–3.070.58–3.421.01–6.49
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.070.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.260.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.390.00–0.78
GK saves
51%
16%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.272.705.97safe1.84–4.711.14–4.262.98–8.96safer1.45–5.100.72–4.682.17–9.78
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.46 0.49–2.43 0.24–2.68 | 1.53 0.68–2.39 0.45–2.62 | 2.99 1.17–4.82 0.69–5.29 | 36% 24% 40% |
| Shots on target | 4.43 2.57–6.29 2.08–6.78 | 4.95 3.21–6.69 2.74–7.16 | 9.38 5.77–12.98 4.82–13.94 | 37% 13% 50% |
| Total shots | 13.05 9.12–16.97 8.03–18.06 | 15.59 12.03–19.16 11.07–20.12 | 28.64 21.16–36.13 19.10–38.18 | 28% 65% |
| Shots in box | 8.80 5.86–11.74 5.03–12.57 | 10.49 7.81–13.18 7.08–13.91 | 19.29 13.67–24.92 12.10–26.48 | 31% 61% |
| Blocked shots | 3.83 1.95–5.71 1.40–6.26 | 5.01 3.36–6.66 2.86–7.15 | 8.84 5.30–12.37 4.27–13.41 | 28% 59% |
| Corners | 5.15 2.93–7.36 2.36–7.94 | 5.57 3.57–7.57 3.03–8.10 | 10.71 6.50–14.93 5.39–16.03 | 39% 49% |
| Possession % | 45.24 38.45–52.03 36.78–53.70 | 55.39 48.61–62.18 46.94–63.85 | — | 25% 71% |
| Passes | 417 350–484 332–503 | 498 431–564 414–582 | 915 781–1049 746–1084 | 25% 75% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.32 66.29–74.35 65.00–75.64 | 80.51 76.18–84.83 74.87–86.14 | — | 89% |
| Fouls | 11.72 8.88–14.56 8.13–15.31 | 11.76 8.81–14.70 8.06–15.45 | 23.48 17.70–29.26 16.19–30.76 | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.96 0.80–3.12 0.50–3.42 | 1.60 0.51–2.69 0.22–2.98 | 3.56 1.31–5.82 0.72–6.40 | 46% 22% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.75 0.70–2.80 0.44–3.07 | 2.00 0.87–3.13 0.58–3.42 | 3.75 1.57–5.93 1.01–6.49 | 34% 21% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.27 1.84–4.71 1.45–5.10 | 2.70 1.14–4.26 0.72–4.68 | 5.97 2.98–8.96 2.17–9.78 | 51% 16% 33% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.