Premier League·Regular Season - 32·
Premier League·Regular Season - 32·Predicted match statistics
Goals
32%
28%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.111.292.40safe0.15–2.080.43–2.140.58–4.22safer0.00–2.330.20–2.370.10–4.70
Shots on target
32%
13%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction3.784.628.41safe1.92–5.652.88–6.364.80–12.01safer1.43–6.142.41–6.833.85–12.97
Total shots
43%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9513.3926.34safe9.02–16.879.83–16.9618.85–33.83safer7.93–17.968.87–17.9216.80–35.88
Shots in box
34%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction7.838.9716.80safe4.89–10.776.29–11.6511.17–22.42safer4.06–11.605.55–12.389.61–23.99
Blocked shots
45%
15%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.933.747.67safe2.04–5.812.09–5.394.13–11.20safer1.50–6.351.59–5.883.09–12.24
Corners
40%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.795.079.86safe2.58–7.013.07–7.075.65–14.07safer2.01–7.582.53–7.604.54–15.18
Possession %
19%
78%
homeawayprediction43.5457.67safe36.75–50.3350.89–64.46safer35.08–52.0049.22–66.13
Passes
87%
homeawaytotalprediction369505874safe302–436439–572741–1008safer284–454421–589705–1044
Pass accuracy %
87%
homeawayprediction65.5674.78safe61.53–69.5970.46–79.11safer60.24–70.8869.15–80.42
Fouls
41%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8611.4022.26safe8.02–13.708.46–14.3516.48–28.05safer7.26–14.457.71–15.1014.98–29.55
Offsides
49%
19%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction2.411.924.33safe1.25–3.570.82–3.012.07–6.58safer0.95–3.870.53–3.301.48–7.17
Yellow cards
32%
21%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.712.073.78safe0.66–2.760.94–3.201.60–5.96safer0.39–3.030.65–3.491.04–6.51
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.290.00–0.52safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
47%
17%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.012.675.68safe1.57–4.441.12–4.232.69–8.67safer1.18–4.830.69–4.651.88–9.48
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.11 0.15–2.08 0.00–2.33 | 1.29 0.43–2.14 0.20–2.37 | 2.40 0.58–4.22 0.10–4.70 | 32% 28% 40% |
| Shots on target | 3.78 1.92–5.65 1.43–6.14 | 4.62 2.88–6.36 2.41–6.83 | 8.41 4.80–12.01 3.85–12.97 | 32% 13% 54% |
| Total shots | 12.95 9.02–16.87 7.93–17.96 | 13.39 9.83–16.96 8.87–17.92 | 26.34 18.85–33.83 16.80–35.88 | 43% 50% |
| Shots in box | 7.83 4.89–10.77 4.06–11.60 | 8.97 6.29–11.65 5.55–12.38 | 16.80 11.17–22.42 9.61–23.99 | 34% 56% |
| Blocked shots | 3.93 2.04–5.81 1.50–6.35 | 3.74 2.09–5.39 1.59–5.88 | 7.67 4.13–11.20 3.09–12.24 | 45% 15% 40% |
| Corners | 4.79 2.58–7.01 2.01–7.58 | 5.07 3.07–7.07 2.53–7.60 | 9.86 5.65–14.07 4.54–15.18 | 40% 47% |
| Possession % | 43.54 36.75–50.33 35.08–52.00 | 57.67 50.89–64.46 49.22–66.13 | — | 19% 78% |
| Passes | 369 302–436 284–454 | 505 439–572 421–589 | 874 741–1008 705–1044 | 87% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.56 61.53–69.59 60.24–70.88 | 74.78 70.46–79.11 69.15–80.42 | — | 87% |
| Fouls | 10.86 8.02–13.70 7.26–14.45 | 11.40 8.46–14.35 7.71–15.10 | 22.26 16.48–28.05 14.98–29.55 | 41% 50% |
| Offsides | 2.41 1.25–3.57 0.95–3.87 | 1.92 0.82–3.01 0.53–3.30 | 4.33 2.07–6.58 1.48–7.17 | 49% 19% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.71 0.66–2.76 0.39–3.03 | 2.07 0.94–3.20 0.65–3.49 | 3.78 1.60–5.96 1.04–6.51 | 32% 21% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.01 1.57–4.44 1.18–4.83 | 2.67 1.12–4.23 0.69–4.65 | 5.68 2.69–8.67 1.88–9.48 | 47% 17% 36% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.