Premier League·Regular Season - 33·
Premier League·Regular Season - 33·Predicted match statistics
Goals
48%
25%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.112.69safe0.61–2.550.25–1.960.86–4.51safer0.36–2.800.02–2.190.38–4.99
Shots on target
57%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.863.808.66safe2.99–6.722.06–5.545.05–12.26safer2.50–7.211.59–6.014.09–13.22
Total shots
69%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction14.7111.6826.39safe10.78–18.638.11–15.2418.90–33.87safer9.69–19.727.16–16.2016.85–35.92
Shots in box
58%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction9.858.4918.33safe6.91–12.795.80–11.1712.71–23.96safer6.08–13.625.07–11.9011.14–25.52
Blocked shots
67%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction4.462.757.21safe2.58–6.351.10–4.403.68–10.75safer2.04–6.890.60–4.892.64–11.78
Corners
59%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.744.5410.28safe3.53–7.962.54–6.546.07–14.50safer2.96–8.532.00–7.074.96–15.60
Possession %
75%
22%
homeawayprediction55.7643.60safe48.97–62.5536.82–50.39safer47.30–64.2235.14–52.06
Passes
83%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction503386888safe435–570319–452755–1022safer417–588302–470719–1058
Pass accuracy %
64%
31%
homeawayprediction72.3269.00safe68.29–76.3564.68–73.32safer66.99–77.6463.37–74.63
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8911.9522.84safe8.05–13.729.01–14.8917.05–28.62safer7.29–14.488.26–15.6415.55–30.12
Offsides
24%
16%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction2.043.115.15safe0.88–3.202.02–4.212.90–7.41safer0.58–3.501.73–4.502.31–8.00
Yellow cards
25%
21%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.372.103.46safe0.32–2.420.97–3.221.29–5.64safer0.05–2.680.68–3.520.73–6.20
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.070.12safe0.00–0.210.00–0.260.00–0.47safer0.00–0.360.00–0.390.00–0.75
GK saves
34%
17%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.633.095.71safe1.19–4.061.53–4.642.72–8.70safer0.80–4.451.11–5.071.91–9.52
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.58 0.61–2.55 0.36–2.80 | 1.11 0.25–1.96 0.02–2.19 | 2.69 0.86–4.51 0.38–4.99 | 48% 25% 27% |
| Shots on target | 4.86 2.99–6.72 2.50–7.21 | 3.80 2.06–5.54 1.59–6.01 | 8.66 5.05–12.26 4.09–13.22 | 57% 30% |
| Total shots | 14.71 10.78–18.63 9.69–19.72 | 11.68 8.11–15.24 7.16–16.20 | 26.39 18.90–33.87 16.85–35.92 | 69% 25% |
| Shots in box | 9.85 6.91–12.79 6.08–13.62 | 8.49 5.80–11.17 5.07–11.90 | 18.33 12.71–23.96 11.14–25.52 | 58% 33% |
| Blocked shots | 4.46 2.58–6.35 2.04–6.89 | 2.75 1.10–4.40 0.60–4.89 | 7.21 3.68–10.75 2.64–11.78 | 67% 20% |
| Corners | 5.74 3.53–7.96 2.96–8.53 | 4.54 2.54–6.54 2.00–7.07 | 10.28 6.07–14.50 4.96–15.60 | 59% 30% |
| Possession % | 55.76 48.97–62.55 47.30–64.22 | 43.60 36.82–50.39 35.14–52.06 | — | 75% 22% |
| Passes | 503 435–570 417–588 | 386 319–452 302–470 | 888 755–1022 719–1058 | 83% 16% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.32 68.29–76.35 66.99–77.64 | 69.00 64.68–73.32 63.37–74.63 | — | 64% 31% |
| Fouls | 10.89 8.05–13.72 7.29–14.48 | 11.95 9.01–14.89 8.26–15.64 | 22.84 17.05–28.62 15.55–30.12 | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 2.04 0.88–3.20 0.58–3.50 | 3.11 2.02–4.21 1.73–4.50 | 5.15 2.90–7.41 2.31–8.00 | 24% 16% 60% |
| Yellow cards | 1.37 0.32–2.42 0.05–2.68 | 2.10 0.97–3.22 0.68–3.52 | 3.46 1.29–5.64 0.73–6.20 | 25% 21% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.75 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.63 1.19–4.06 0.80–4.45 | 3.09 1.53–4.64 1.11–5.07 | 5.71 2.72–8.70 1.91–9.52 | 34% 17% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+