Premier League·Regular Season - 33·
Premier League·Regular Season - 33·Predicted match statistics
Goals
28%
25%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.141.532.67safe0.17–2.110.68–2.390.84–4.49safer0.00–2.360.45–2.610.37–4.97
Shots on target
32%
13%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction3.734.608.33safe1.87–5.592.86–6.344.72–11.93safer1.38–6.082.39–6.813.77–12.89
Total shots
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6012.9125.50safe8.67–16.529.34–16.4718.02–32.99safer7.58–17.618.38–17.4315.97–35.04
Shots in box
29%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction7.208.9416.14safe4.26–10.146.26–11.6210.51–21.76safer3.43–10.975.52–12.368.95–23.33
Blocked shots
40%
15%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.713.887.59safe1.83–5.592.23–5.544.06–11.13safer1.28–6.131.74–6.033.02–12.16
Corners
36%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction4.625.219.83safe2.40–6.833.21–7.215.61–14.04safer1.83–7.402.68–7.744.51–15.15
Possession %
25%
71%
homeawayprediction44.8955.40safe38.10–51.6848.62–62.19safer36.43–53.3546.95–63.86
Passes
22%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction397489885safe329–464422–555752–1019safer311–482405–573716–1055
Pass accuracy %
88%
homeawayprediction67.1276.85safe63.09–71.1572.52–81.17safer61.80–72.4471.21–82.48
Fouls
58%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1311.6524.78safe10.29–15.978.71–14.6019.00–30.56safer9.54–16.727.96–15.3417.49–32.07
Offsides
32%
23%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.763.21safe0.28–2.610.67–2.850.95–5.46safer0.00–2.910.38–3.140.36–6.05
Yellow cards
42%
20%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.172.084.26safe1.13–3.220.95–3.212.08–6.43safer0.86–3.490.66–3.501.52–6.99
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.080.21safe0.00–0.290.00–0.260.00–0.56safer0.00–0.440.00–0.400.00–0.84
GK saves
47%
17%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.012.675.67safe1.57–4.441.11–4.222.68–8.67safer1.18–4.830.69–4.651.87–9.48
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.14 0.17–2.11 0.00–2.36 | 1.53 0.68–2.39 0.45–2.61 | 2.67 0.84–4.49 0.37–4.97 | 28% 25% 46% |
| Shots on target | 3.73 1.87–5.59 1.38–6.08 | 4.60 2.86–6.34 2.39–6.81 | 8.33 4.72–11.93 3.77–12.89 | 32% 13% 55% |
| Total shots | 12.60 8.67–16.52 7.58–17.61 | 12.91 9.34–16.47 8.38–17.43 | 25.50 18.02–32.99 15.97–35.04 | 44% 48% |
| Shots in box | 7.20 4.26–10.14 3.43–10.97 | 8.94 6.26–11.62 5.52–12.36 | 16.14 10.51–21.76 8.95–23.33 | 29% 62% |
| Blocked shots | 3.71 1.83–5.59 1.28–6.13 | 3.88 2.23–5.54 1.74–6.03 | 7.59 4.06–11.13 3.02–12.16 | 40% 15% 45% |
| Corners | 4.62 2.40–6.83 1.83–7.40 | 5.21 3.21–7.21 2.68–7.74 | 9.83 5.61–14.04 4.51–15.15 | 36% 51% |
| Possession % | 44.89 38.10–51.68 36.43–53.35 | 55.40 48.62–62.19 46.95–63.86 | — | 25% 71% |
| Passes | 397 329–464 311–482 | 489 422–555 405–573 | 885 752–1019 716–1055 | 22% 78% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.12 63.09–71.15 61.80–72.44 | 76.85 72.52–81.17 71.21–82.48 | — | 88% |
| Fouls | 13.13 10.29–15.97 9.54–16.72 | 11.65 8.71–14.60 7.96–15.34 | 24.78 19.00–30.56 17.49–32.07 | 58% 35% |
| Offsides | 1.44 0.28–2.61 0.00–2.91 | 1.76 0.67–2.85 0.38–3.14 | 3.21 0.95–5.46 0.36–6.05 | 32% 23% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 2.17 1.13–3.22 0.86–3.49 | 2.08 0.95–3.21 0.66–3.50 | 4.26 2.08–6.43 1.52–6.99 | 42% 20% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.01 1.57–4.44 1.18–4.83 | 2.67 1.11–4.22 0.69–4.65 | 5.67 2.68–8.67 1.87–9.48 | 47% 17% 36% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.