Predicted match statistics
Goals
42%
25%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.292.80safe0.54–2.480.43–2.140.98–4.62safer0.29–2.730.21–2.370.50–5.10
Shots on target
49%
13%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.834.429.25safe2.96–6.692.68–6.165.64–12.85safer2.48–7.182.21–6.634.69–13.81
Total shots
66%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5411.8626.40safe10.62–18.478.29–15.4218.91–33.89safer9.53–19.567.33–16.3816.86–35.94
Shots in box
68%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction10.497.9718.46safe7.55–13.445.29–10.6512.84–24.09safer6.72–14.274.55–11.3911.27–25.65
Blocked shots
59%
14%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.303.167.46safe2.42–6.181.51–4.813.92–10.99safer1.87–6.721.01–5.302.89–12.03
Corners
55%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.694.7710.46safe3.47–7.902.77–6.776.24–14.67safer2.90–8.472.24–7.305.14–15.78
Possession %
35%
61%
homeawayprediction47.0852.68safe40.29–53.8845.89–59.46safer38.62–55.5444.22–61.13
Passes
28%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction419490910safe352–487424–557776–1043safer334–505406–574740–1079
Pass accuracy %
24%
72%
homeawayprediction68.6773.66safe64.64–72.7069.33–77.98safer63.35–73.9968.02–79.29
Fouls
49%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6310.2320.86safe7.79–13.467.29–13.1815.08–26.64safer7.03–14.226.54–13.9313.57–28.15
Offsides
46%
20%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.171.864.02safe1.01–3.330.76–2.951.77–6.28safer0.70–3.630.48–3.241.18–6.87
Yellow cards
31%
24%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.683.05safe0.32–2.420.55–2.810.87–5.23safer0.05–2.680.26–3.100.31–5.78
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.070.12safe0.00–0.210.00–0.260.00–0.47safer0.00–0.360.00–0.390.00–0.75
GK saves
36%
16%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.833.226.05safe1.40–4.271.66–4.773.06–9.04safer1.01–4.661.23–5.202.24–9.85
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.51 0.54–2.48 0.29–2.73 | 1.29 0.43–2.14 0.21–2.37 | 2.80 0.98–4.62 0.50–5.10 | 42% 25% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.83 2.96–6.69 2.48–7.18 | 4.42 2.68–6.16 2.21–6.63 | 9.25 5.64–12.85 4.69–13.81 | 49% 13% 38% |
| Total shots | 14.54 10.62–18.47 9.53–19.56 | 11.86 8.29–15.42 7.33–16.38 | 26.40 18.91–33.89 16.86–35.94 | 66% 27% |
| Shots in box | 10.49 7.55–13.44 6.72–14.27 | 7.97 5.29–10.65 4.55–11.39 | 18.46 12.84–24.09 11.27–25.65 | 68% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 4.30 2.42–6.18 1.87–6.72 | 3.16 1.51–4.81 1.01–5.30 | 7.46 3.92–10.99 2.89–12.03 | 59% 14% 27% |
| Corners | 5.69 3.47–7.90 2.90–8.47 | 4.77 2.77–6.77 2.24–7.30 | 10.46 6.24–14.67 5.14–15.78 | 55% 33% |
| Possession % | 47.08 40.29–53.88 38.62–55.54 | 52.68 45.89–59.46 44.22–61.13 | — | 35% 61% |
| Passes | 419 352–487 334–505 | 490 424–557 406–574 | 910 776–1043 740–1079 | 28% 72% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.67 64.64–72.70 63.35–73.99 | 73.66 69.33–77.98 68.02–79.29 | — | 24% 72% |
| Fouls | 10.63 7.79–13.46 7.03–14.22 | 10.23 7.29–13.18 6.54–13.93 | 20.86 15.08–26.64 13.57–28.15 | 49% 42% |
| Offsides | 2.17 1.01–3.33 0.70–3.63 | 1.86 0.76–2.95 0.48–3.24 | 4.02 1.77–6.28 1.18–6.87 | 46% 20% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 1.37 0.32–2.42 0.05–2.68 | 1.68 0.55–2.81 0.26–3.10 | 3.05 0.87–5.23 0.31–5.78 | 31% 24% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.75 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.83 1.40–4.27 1.01–4.66 | 3.22 1.66–4.77 1.23–5.20 | 6.05 3.06–9.04 2.24–9.85 | 36% 16% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+