Premier League·Regular Season - 33·
Premier League·Regular Season - 33·Predicted match statistics
Goals
25%
23%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.221.843.06safe0.25–2.190.99–2.701.24–4.88safer0.00–2.440.76–2.930.76–5.36
Shots on target
19%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction3.866.069.93safe2.00–5.734.32–7.816.32–13.53safer1.51–6.223.85–8.275.37–14.49
Total shots
19%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8816.0727.95safe7.95–15.8012.50–19.6320.46–35.43safer6.86–16.9011.54–20.5918.41–37.48
Shots in box
19%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction7.6811.0218.70safe4.74–10.628.34–13.7013.07–24.32safer3.91–11.457.60–14.4411.51–25.89
Blocked shots
24%
13%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction3.054.477.52safe1.17–4.932.82–6.133.99–11.06safer0.62–5.482.33–6.622.95–12.09
Corners
26%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction4.375.8810.25safe2.16–6.593.88–7.886.04–14.46safer1.58–7.163.34–8.414.93–15.57
Possession %
92%
homeawayprediction38.1162.56safe31.32–44.9055.78–69.35safer29.65–46.5754.11–71.02
Passes
97%
homeawaytotalprediction374594968safe307–441528–661834–1102safer289–459510–678799–1137
Pass accuracy %
95%
homeawayprediction69.9583.40safe65.92–73.9879.08–87.72safer64.63–75.2777.77–89.03
Fouls
43%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9411.2622.20safe8.10–13.788.32–14.2116.42–27.98safer7.35–14.537.57–14.9514.91–29.49
Offsides
62%
17%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction2.741.594.33safe1.58–3.900.50–2.682.08–6.58safer1.28–4.200.21–2.971.49–7.17
Yellow cards
44%
20%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.232.034.26safe1.18–3.280.90–3.162.08–6.43safer0.91–3.550.61–3.451.52–6.99
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.070.15safe0.00–0.240.00–0.260.00–0.50safer0.00–0.390.00–0.390.00–0.78
GK saves
61%
14%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction3.832.626.45safe2.39–5.261.07–4.183.46–9.44safer2.00–5.650.64–4.602.64–10.25
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.22 0.25–2.19 0.00–2.44 | 1.84 0.99–2.70 0.76–2.93 | 3.06 1.24–4.88 0.76–5.36 | 25% 23% 52% |
| Shots on target | 3.86 2.00–5.73 1.51–6.22 | 6.06 4.32–7.81 3.85–8.27 | 9.93 6.32–13.53 5.37–14.49 | 19% 70% |
| Total shots | 11.88 7.95–15.80 6.86–16.90 | 16.07 12.50–19.63 11.54–20.59 | 27.95 20.46–35.43 18.41–37.48 | 19% 76% |
| Shots in box | 7.68 4.74–10.62 3.91–11.45 | 11.02 8.34–13.70 7.60–14.44 | 18.70 13.07–24.32 11.51–25.89 | 19% 74% |
| Blocked shots | 3.05 1.17–4.93 0.62–5.48 | 4.47 2.82–6.13 2.33–6.62 | 7.52 3.99–11.06 2.95–12.09 | 24% 13% 63% |
| Corners | 4.37 2.16–6.59 1.58–7.16 | 5.88 3.88–7.88 3.34–8.41 | 10.25 6.04–14.46 4.93–15.57 | 26% 62% |
| Possession % | 38.11 31.32–44.90 29.65–46.57 | 62.56 55.78–69.35 54.11–71.02 | — | 92% |
| Passes | 374 307–441 289–459 | 594 528–661 510–678 | 968 834–1102 799–1137 | 97% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.95 65.92–73.98 64.63–75.27 | 83.40 79.08–87.72 77.77–89.03 | — | 95% |
| Fouls | 10.94 8.10–13.78 7.35–14.53 | 11.26 8.32–14.21 7.57–14.95 | 22.20 16.42–27.98 14.91–29.49 | 43% 48% |
| Offsides | 2.74 1.58–3.90 1.28–4.20 | 1.59 0.50–2.68 0.21–2.97 | 4.33 2.08–6.58 1.49–7.17 | 62% 17% 21% |
| Yellow cards | 2.23 1.18–3.28 0.91–3.55 | 2.03 0.90–3.16 0.61–3.45 | 4.26 2.08–6.43 1.52–6.99 | 44% 20% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.83 2.39–5.26 2.00–5.65 | 2.62 1.07–4.18 0.64–4.60 | 6.45 3.46–9.44 2.64–10.25 | 61% 14% 25% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.