Predicted match statistics
Goals
31%
26%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.201.442.64safe0.23–2.170.58–2.290.81–4.46safer0.00–2.420.36–2.520.34–4.94
Shots on target
27%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction3.775.098.87safe1.91–5.643.35–6.845.26–12.47safer1.42–6.132.89–7.304.31–13.43
Total shots
22%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7315.1426.86safe7.80–15.6511.57–18.7019.38–34.35safer6.71–16.7410.61–19.6617.33–36.40
Shots in box
27%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction7.679.7817.44safe4.72–10.617.10–12.4611.82–23.07safer3.89–11.446.36–13.2010.25–24.63
Blocked shots
35%
15%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction3.484.017.49safe1.60–5.362.36–5.663.95–11.02safer1.05–5.901.87–6.162.92–12.06
Corners
32%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction4.555.5410.09safe2.34–6.773.54–7.545.88–14.31safer1.77–7.343.01–8.074.77–15.41
Possession %
15%
82%
homeawayprediction42.4158.95safe35.62–49.2052.16–65.73safer33.95–50.8750.49–67.40
Passes
89%
homeawaytotalprediction365512877safe298–433445–578743–1011safer280–451428–596708–1046
Pass accuracy %
88%
homeawayprediction65.9675.65safe61.93–69.9971.33–79.98safer60.64–71.2870.02–81.29
Fouls
31%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction9.9511.7921.74safe7.11–12.798.85–14.7415.96–27.52safer6.35–13.548.10–15.4914.46–29.03
Offsides
46%
19%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.472.184.65safe1.31–3.631.09–3.272.40–6.90safer1.01–3.930.80–3.561.81–7.49
Yellow cards
30%
22%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.913.39safe0.42–2.520.79–3.041.21–5.57safer0.16–2.790.49–3.340.65–6.12
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79
GK saves
57%
16%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction3.472.525.99safe2.04–4.910.96–4.073.00–8.98safer1.65–5.300.53–4.502.18–9.79
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.20 0.23–2.17 0.00–2.42 | 1.44 0.58–2.29 0.36–2.52 | 2.64 0.81–4.46 0.34–4.94 | 31% 26% 43% |
| Shots on target | 3.77 1.91–5.64 1.42–6.13 | 5.09 3.35–6.84 2.89–7.30 | 8.87 5.26–12.47 4.31–13.43 | 27% 61% |
| Total shots | 11.73 7.80–15.65 6.71–16.74 | 15.14 11.57–18.70 10.61–19.66 | 26.86 19.38–34.35 17.33–36.40 | 22% 71% |
| Shots in box | 7.67 4.72–10.61 3.89–11.44 | 9.78 7.10–12.46 6.36–13.20 | 17.44 11.82–23.07 10.25–24.63 | 27% 65% |
| Blocked shots | 3.48 1.60–5.36 1.05–5.90 | 4.01 2.36–5.66 1.87–6.16 | 7.49 3.95–11.02 2.92–12.06 | 35% 15% 50% |
| Corners | 4.55 2.34–6.77 1.77–7.34 | 5.54 3.54–7.54 3.01–8.07 | 10.09 5.88–14.31 4.77–15.41 | 32% 56% |
| Possession % | 42.41 35.62–49.20 33.95–50.87 | 58.95 52.16–65.73 50.49–67.40 | — | 15% 82% |
| Passes | 365 298–433 280–451 | 512 445–578 428–596 | 877 743–1011 708–1046 | 89% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.96 61.93–69.99 60.64–71.28 | 75.65 71.33–79.98 70.02–81.29 | — | 88% |
| Fouls | 9.95 7.11–12.79 6.35–13.54 | 11.79 8.85–14.74 8.10–15.49 | 21.74 15.96–27.52 14.46–29.03 | 31% 61% |
| Offsides | 2.47 1.31–3.63 1.01–3.93 | 2.18 1.09–3.27 0.80–3.56 | 4.65 2.40–6.90 1.81–7.49 | 46% 19% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.47 0.42–2.52 0.16–2.79 | 1.91 0.79–3.04 0.49–3.34 | 3.39 1.21–5.57 0.65–6.12 | 30% 22% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.47 2.04–4.91 1.65–5.30 | 2.52 0.96–4.07 0.53–4.50 | 5.99 3.00–8.98 2.18–9.79 | 57% 16% 27% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.