Premier League·Regular Season - 33·
Premier League·Regular Season - 33·Predicted match statistics
Goals
57%
22%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction1.931.062.99safe0.96–2.890.21–1.921.17–4.81safer0.71–3.150.00–2.150.69–5.29
Shots on target
71%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.983.799.77safe4.12–7.842.05–5.536.17–13.38safer3.63–8.331.58–6.005.21–14.33
Total shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction16.5610.8127.38safe12.64–20.497.25–14.3819.89–34.86safer11.55–21.586.29–15.3417.84–36.91
Shots in box
76%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction11.257.7318.97safe8.30–14.195.05–10.4113.35–24.60safer7.47–15.024.31–11.1411.78–26.16
Blocked shots
69%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5.143.228.35safe3.25–7.021.56–4.874.82–11.89safer2.71–7.561.07–5.363.78–12.92
Corners
68%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction6.364.2910.65safe4.15–8.572.29–6.296.44–14.86safer3.57–9.151.76–6.825.33–15.97
Possession %
78%
19%
homeawayprediction57.1143.27safe50.32–63.9036.49–50.06safer48.65–65.5734.82–51.73
Passes
89%
homeawaytotalprediction558408966safe491–625342–474832–1099safer472–643324–492796–1135
Pass accuracy %
71%
25%
homeawayprediction75.0770.40safe71.04–79.1066.07–74.72safer69.75–80.4064.76–76.03
Fouls
33%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction9.6211.1020.72safe6.78–12.468.15–14.0414.93–26.50safer6.03–13.217.40–14.7913.43–28.00
Offsides
31%
23%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.391.753.14safe0.23–2.550.66–2.840.89–5.40safer0.00–2.860.37–3.130.30–5.99
Yellow cards
26%
23%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.251.833.08safe0.20–2.300.70–2.960.90–5.26safer0.00–2.570.41–3.250.34–5.81
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.76
GK saves
21%
14%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction2.514.006.51safe1.07–3.942.44–5.553.51–9.50safer0.68–4.332.02–5.982.70–10.31
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.93 0.96–2.89 0.71–3.15 | 1.06 0.21–1.92 0.00–2.15 | 2.99 1.17–4.81 0.69–5.29 | 57% 22% 21% |
| Shots on target | 5.98 4.12–7.84 3.63–8.33 | 3.79 2.05–5.53 1.58–6.00 | 9.77 6.17–13.38 5.21–14.33 | 71% 19% |
| Total shots | 16.56 12.64–20.49 11.55–21.58 | 10.81 7.25–14.38 6.29–15.34 | 27.38 19.89–34.86 17.84–36.91 | 84% |
| Shots in box | 11.25 8.30–14.19 7.47–15.02 | 7.73 5.05–10.41 4.31–11.14 | 18.97 13.35–24.60 11.78–26.16 | 76% 18% |
| Blocked shots | 5.14 3.25–7.02 2.71–7.56 | 3.22 1.56–4.87 1.07–5.36 | 8.35 4.82–11.89 3.78–12.92 | 69% 20% |
| Corners | 6.36 4.15–8.57 3.57–9.15 | 4.29 2.29–6.29 1.76–6.82 | 10.65 6.44–14.86 5.33–15.97 | 68% 21% |
| Possession % | 57.11 50.32–63.90 48.65–65.57 | 43.27 36.49–50.06 34.82–51.73 | — | 78% 19% |
| Passes | 558 491–625 472–643 | 408 342–474 324–492 | 966 832–1099 796–1135 | 89% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.07 71.04–79.10 69.75–80.40 | 70.40 66.07–74.72 64.76–76.03 | — | 71% 25% |
| Fouls | 9.62 6.78–12.46 6.03–13.21 | 11.10 8.15–14.04 7.40–14.79 | 20.72 14.93–26.50 13.43–28.00 | 33% 58% |
| Offsides | 1.39 0.23–2.55 0.00–2.86 | 1.75 0.66–2.84 0.37–3.13 | 3.14 0.89–5.40 0.30–5.99 | 31% 23% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 1.25 0.20–2.30 0.00–2.57 | 1.83 0.70–2.96 0.41–3.25 | 3.08 0.90–5.26 0.34–5.81 | 26% 23% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.51 1.07–3.94 0.68–4.33 | 4.00 2.44–5.55 2.02–5.98 | 6.51 3.51–9.50 2.70–10.31 | 21% 14% 65% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.