Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
24%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.621.362.98safe0.65–2.590.50–2.211.15–4.80safer0.40–2.840.27–2.440.67–5.28
Shots on target
49%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction5.014.609.61safe3.14–6.872.86–6.356.00–13.21safer2.65–7.362.39–6.815.05–14.17
Total shots
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction14.7114.0128.72safe10.79–18.6410.45–17.5821.24–36.21safer9.70–19.739.49–18.5319.19–38.26
Shots in box
50%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction9.699.1618.85safe6.75–12.636.48–11.8413.23–24.47safer5.92–13.465.74–12.5711.66–26.04
Blocked shots
41%
14%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.294.448.73safe2.41–6.172.79–6.095.20–12.27safer1.87–6.722.29–6.594.16–13.30
Corners
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.994.7310.72safe3.78–8.202.73–6.736.51–14.94safer3.20–8.782.20–7.275.40–16.04
Possession %
59%
37%
homeawayprediction52.3647.62safe45.57–59.1540.84–54.41safer43.90–60.8239.16–56.08
Passes
71%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction484418902safe417–551352–485769–1036safer399–569334–502733–1072
Pass accuracy %
44%
51%
homeawayprediction72.8473.57safe68.81–76.8769.25–77.89safer67.51–78.1667.94–79.20
Fouls
32%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction10.2311.9022.13safe7.39–13.078.96–14.8516.35–27.92safer6.64–13.828.21–15.6014.85–29.42
Offsides
45%
23%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.791.493.29safe0.63–2.960.40–2.591.04–5.54safer0.33–3.260.11–2.880.45–6.13
Yellow cards
29%
22%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.963.43safe0.43–2.520.83–3.081.25–5.61safer0.16–2.790.54–3.380.69–6.17
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.250.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.390.00–0.76
GK saves
41%
17%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.033.066.09safe1.59–4.471.50–4.613.10–9.08safer1.21–4.851.08–5.042.28–9.89
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.62 0.65–2.59 0.40–2.84 | 1.36 0.50–2.21 0.27–2.44 | 2.98 1.15–4.80 0.67–5.28 | 44% 24% 32% |
| Shots on target | 5.01 3.14–6.87 2.65–7.36 | 4.60 2.86–6.35 2.39–6.81 | 9.61 6.00–13.21 5.05–14.17 | 49% 38% |
| Total shots | 14.71 10.79–18.64 9.70–19.73 | 14.01 10.45–17.58 9.49–18.53 | 28.72 21.24–36.21 19.19–38.26 | 51% 41% |
| Shots in box | 9.69 6.75–12.63 5.92–13.46 | 9.16 6.48–11.84 5.74–12.57 | 18.85 13.23–24.47 11.66–26.04 | 50% 41% |
| Blocked shots | 4.29 2.41–6.17 1.87–6.72 | 4.44 2.79–6.09 2.29–6.59 | 8.73 5.20–12.27 4.16–13.30 | 41% 14% 45% |
| Corners | 5.99 3.78–8.20 3.20–8.78 | 4.73 2.73–6.73 2.20–7.27 | 10.72 6.51–14.94 5.40–16.04 | 59% 29% |
| Possession % | 52.36 45.57–59.15 43.90–60.82 | 47.62 40.84–54.41 39.16–56.08 | — | 59% 37% |
| Passes | 484 417–551 399–569 | 418 352–485 334–502 | 902 769–1036 733–1072 | 71% 29% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.84 68.81–76.87 67.51–78.16 | 73.57 69.25–77.89 67.94–79.20 | — | 44% 51% |
| Fouls | 10.23 7.39–13.07 6.64–13.82 | 11.90 8.96–14.85 8.21–15.60 | 22.13 16.35–27.92 14.85–29.42 | 32% 60% |
| Offsides | 1.79 0.63–2.96 0.33–3.26 | 1.49 0.40–2.59 0.11–2.88 | 3.29 1.04–5.54 0.45–6.13 | 45% 23% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.47 0.43–2.52 0.16–2.79 | 1.96 0.83–3.08 0.54–3.38 | 3.43 1.25–5.61 0.69–6.17 | 29% 22% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.07 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 3.03 1.59–4.47 1.21–4.85 | 3.06 1.50–4.61 1.08–5.04 | 6.09 3.10–9.08 2.28–9.89 | 41% 17% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.