Premier League·Regular Season - 33·
Premier League·Regular Season - 33·Predicted match statistics
Goals
43%
28%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.321.062.37safe0.35–2.290.20–1.910.55–4.20safer0.10–2.540.00–2.140.07–4.68
Shots on target
58%
13%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction4.553.498.04safe2.69–6.411.74–5.234.43–11.64safer2.20–6.901.28–5.703.48–12.60
Total shots
76%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction14.8110.7225.54safe10.89–18.747.16–14.2918.05–33.03safer9.80–19.836.20–15.2516.00–35.08
Shots in box
63%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction9.297.4516.74safe6.35–12.244.76–10.1311.12–22.36safer5.52–13.064.03–10.869.55–23.93
Blocked shots
63%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction4.583.147.72safe2.70–6.471.48–4.794.19–11.26safer2.16–7.010.99–5.283.15–12.29
Corners
62%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.794.3210.11safe3.57–8.002.32–6.325.90–14.32safer3.00–8.571.79–6.864.79–15.43
Possession %
66%
30%
homeawayprediction53.7645.90safe46.97–60.5539.12–52.69safer45.30–62.2237.45–54.36
Passes
71%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction434368802safe367–501301–434668–936safer349–520284–452632–971
Pass accuracy %
51%
43%
homeawayprediction68.1967.41safe64.16–72.2263.08–71.73safer62.87–73.5161.77–73.04
Fouls
59%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4411.7925.23safe10.60–16.288.85–14.7419.45–31.02safer9.85–17.038.10–15.4917.95–32.52
Offsides
28%
23%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.341.863.19safe0.18–2.500.76–2.950.94–5.45safer0.00–2.800.47–3.240.35–6.04
Yellow cards
32%
20%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.832.244.07safe0.78–2.881.11–3.371.89–6.25safer0.52–3.150.82–3.661.34–6.81
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
28%
16%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.343.185.53safe0.91–3.781.63–4.742.53–8.52safer0.52–4.171.20–5.171.72–9.33
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.32 0.35–2.29 0.10–2.54 | 1.06 0.20–1.91 0.00–2.14 | 2.37 0.55–4.20 0.07–4.68 | 43% 28% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.55 2.69–6.41 2.20–6.90 | 3.49 1.74–5.23 1.28–5.70 | 8.04 4.43–11.64 3.48–12.60 | 58% 13% 29% |
| Total shots | 14.81 10.89–18.74 9.80–19.83 | 10.72 7.16–14.29 6.20–15.25 | 25.54 18.05–33.03 16.00–35.08 | 76% 18% |
| Shots in box | 9.29 6.35–12.24 5.52–13.06 | 7.45 4.76–10.13 4.03–10.86 | 16.74 11.12–22.36 9.55–23.93 | 63% 28% |
| Blocked shots | 4.58 2.70–6.47 2.16–7.01 | 3.14 1.48–4.79 0.99–5.28 | 7.72 4.19–11.26 3.15–12.29 | 63% 24% |
| Corners | 5.79 3.57–8.00 3.00–8.57 | 4.32 2.32–6.32 1.79–6.86 | 10.11 5.90–14.32 4.79–15.43 | 62% 27% |
| Possession % | 53.76 46.97–60.55 45.30–62.22 | 45.90 39.12–52.69 37.45–54.36 | — | 66% 30% |
| Passes | 434 367–501 349–520 | 368 301–434 284–452 | 802 668–936 632–971 | 71% 29% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.19 64.16–72.22 62.87–73.51 | 67.41 63.08–71.73 61.77–73.04 | — | 51% 43% |
| Fouls | 13.44 10.60–16.28 9.85–17.03 | 11.79 8.85–14.74 8.10–15.49 | 25.23 19.45–31.02 17.95–32.52 | 59% 33% |
| Offsides | 1.34 0.18–2.50 0.00–2.80 | 1.86 0.76–2.95 0.47–3.24 | 3.19 0.94–5.45 0.35–6.04 | 28% 23% 50% |
| Yellow cards | 1.83 0.78–2.88 0.52–3.15 | 2.24 1.11–3.37 0.82–3.66 | 4.07 1.89–6.25 1.34–6.81 | 32% 20% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.34 0.91–3.78 0.52–4.17 | 3.18 1.63–4.74 1.20–5.17 | 5.53 2.53–8.52 1.72–9.33 | 28% 16% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+