Premier League·Regular Season - 34·
Premier League·Regular Season - 34·Predicted match statistics
Goals
48%
25%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.162.77safe0.65–2.580.30–2.010.95–4.60safer0.40–2.830.07–2.240.47–5.07
Shots on target
58%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.113.999.10safe3.25–6.982.25–5.735.50–12.71safer2.76–7.461.78–6.204.54–13.66
Total shots
73%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction14.7411.0825.82safe10.82–18.677.52–14.6418.34–33.31safer9.73–19.766.56–15.6016.29–35.36
Shots in box
63%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction9.867.9517.81safe6.92–12.805.27–10.6312.18–23.43safer6.09–13.634.53–11.3710.62–25.00
Blocked shots
59%
14%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.002.886.88safe2.11–5.881.23–4.533.34–10.41safer1.57–6.420.73–5.022.31–11.45
Corners
65%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.934.2110.13safe3.71–8.142.21–6.215.92–14.35safer3.14–8.711.67–6.744.81–15.45
Possession %
90%
homeawayprediction61.1938.96safe54.40–67.9832.18–45.75safer52.73–69.6530.50–47.42
Passes
95%
homeawaytotalprediction535342877safe468–603275–408743–1011safer450–621258–426708–1046
Pass accuracy %
87%
homeawayprediction76.9867.73safe72.95–81.0163.40–72.05safer71.66–82.3062.09–73.36
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1211.9423.06safe8.28–13.969.00–14.8917.28–28.84safer7.53–14.718.25–15.6315.77–30.35
Offsides
35%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.963.72safe0.60–2.920.87–3.051.47–5.97safer0.30–3.220.58–3.340.88–6.56
Yellow cards
33%
21%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.692.003.69safe0.64–2.740.87–3.131.51–5.87safer0.38–3.010.58–3.420.95–6.42
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79
GK saves
30%
16%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.633.396.02safe1.19–4.071.83–4.943.03–9.01safer0.81–4.451.41–5.372.21–9.82
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.61 0.65–2.58 0.40–2.83 | 1.16 0.30–2.01 0.07–2.24 | 2.77 0.95–4.60 0.47–5.07 | 48% 25% 27% |
| Shots on target | 5.11 3.25–6.98 2.76–7.46 | 3.99 2.25–5.73 1.78–6.20 | 9.10 5.50–12.71 4.54–13.66 | 58% 29% |
| Total shots | 14.74 10.82–18.67 9.73–19.76 | 11.08 7.52–14.64 6.56–15.60 | 25.82 18.34–33.31 16.29–35.36 | 73% 21% |
| Shots in box | 9.86 6.92–12.80 6.09–13.63 | 7.95 5.27–10.63 4.53–11.37 | 17.81 12.18–23.43 10.62–25.00 | 63% 28% |
| Blocked shots | 4.00 2.11–5.88 1.57–6.42 | 2.88 1.23–4.53 0.73–5.02 | 6.88 3.34–10.41 2.31–11.45 | 59% 14% 27% |
| Corners | 5.93 3.71–8.14 3.14–8.71 | 4.21 2.21–6.21 1.67–6.74 | 10.13 5.92–14.35 4.81–15.45 | 65% 24% |
| Possession % | 61.19 54.40–67.98 52.73–69.65 | 38.96 32.18–45.75 30.50–47.42 | — | 90% |
| Passes | 535 468–603 450–621 | 342 275–408 258–426 | 877 743–1011 708–1046 | 95% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.98 72.95–81.01 71.66–82.30 | 67.73 63.40–72.05 62.09–73.36 | — | 87% |
| Fouls | 11.12 8.28–13.96 7.53–14.71 | 11.94 9.00–14.89 8.25–15.63 | 23.06 17.28–28.84 15.77–30.35 | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.76 0.60–2.92 0.30–3.22 | 1.96 0.87–3.05 0.58–3.34 | 3.72 1.47–5.97 0.88–6.56 | 35% 21% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 1.69 0.64–2.74 0.38–3.01 | 2.00 0.87–3.13 0.58–3.42 | 3.69 1.51–5.87 0.95–6.42 | 33% 21% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.63 1.19–4.07 0.81–4.45 | 3.39 1.83–4.94 1.41–5.37 | 6.02 3.03–9.01 2.21–9.82 | 30% 16% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.