Premier League·Regular Season - 34·
Premier League·Regular Season - 34·Predicted match statistics
Goals
23%
21%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.272.113.38safe0.30–2.241.25–2.961.56–5.20safer0.05–2.491.03–3.191.08–5.68
Shots on target
26%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction4.285.8110.08safe2.42–6.144.06–7.556.48–13.69safer1.93–6.633.60–8.015.52–14.64
Total shots
29%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8615.2528.11safe8.94–16.7911.68–18.8120.62–35.60safer7.85–17.8810.72–19.7718.57–37.65
Shots in box
28%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction8.4210.4118.83safe5.48–11.367.73–13.0913.20–24.45safer4.65–12.196.99–13.8311.64–26.02
Blocked shots
35%
14%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction3.944.588.53safe2.06–5.832.93–6.244.99–12.06safer1.52–6.372.44–6.733.96–13.10
Corners
35%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.995.7610.74safe2.77–7.203.75–7.766.53–14.95safer2.20–7.773.22–8.295.42–16.06
Possession %
16%
81%
homeawayprediction42.6258.30safe35.83–49.4151.52–65.09safer34.16–51.0849.85–66.76
Passes
15%
85%
homeawaytotalprediction415538953safe348–482471–604819–1087safer330–501454–622784–1122
Pass accuracy %
88%
homeawayprediction67.9477.54safe63.91–71.9773.22–81.86safer62.62–73.2771.91–83.17
Fouls
49%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction10.399.9720.36safe7.55–13.237.02–12.9114.57–26.14safer6.80–13.986.27–13.6613.07–27.64
Offsides
26%
20%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.582.333.91safe0.42–2.741.23–3.421.66–6.16safer0.12–3.050.94–3.711.07–6.75
Yellow cards
38%
24%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.563.13safe0.52–2.620.43–2.690.95–5.30safer0.25–2.890.14–2.980.39–5.86
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.060.12safe0.00–0.220.00–0.250.00–0.47safer0.00–0.370.00–0.380.00–0.75
GK saves
57%
15%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction3.752.776.52safe2.31–5.191.21–4.323.52–9.51safer1.93–5.570.79–4.752.71–10.32
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.27 0.30–2.24 0.05–2.49 | 2.11 1.25–2.96 1.03–3.19 | 3.38 1.56–5.20 1.08–5.68 | 23% 21% 57% |
| Shots on target | 4.28 2.42–6.14 1.93–6.63 | 5.81 4.06–7.55 3.60–8.01 | 10.08 6.48–13.69 5.52–14.64 | 26% 63% |
| Total shots | 12.86 8.94–16.79 7.85–17.88 | 15.25 11.68–18.81 10.72–19.77 | 28.11 20.62–35.60 18.57–37.65 | 29% 64% |
| Shots in box | 8.42 5.48–11.36 4.65–12.19 | 10.41 7.73–13.09 6.99–13.83 | 18.83 13.20–24.45 11.64–26.02 | 28% 63% |
| Blocked shots | 3.94 2.06–5.83 1.52–6.37 | 4.58 2.93–6.24 2.44–6.73 | 8.53 4.99–12.06 3.96–13.10 | 35% 14% 52% |
| Corners | 4.99 2.77–7.20 2.20–7.77 | 5.76 3.75–7.76 3.22–8.29 | 10.74 6.53–14.95 5.42–16.06 | 35% 53% |
| Possession % | 42.62 35.83–49.41 34.16–51.08 | 58.30 51.52–65.09 49.85–66.76 | — | 16% 81% |
| Passes | 415 348–482 330–501 | 538 471–604 454–622 | 953 819–1087 784–1122 | 15% 85% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.94 63.91–71.97 62.62–73.27 | 77.54 73.22–81.86 71.91–83.17 | — | 88% |
| Fouls | 10.39 7.55–13.23 6.80–13.98 | 9.97 7.02–12.91 6.27–13.66 | 20.36 14.57–26.14 13.07–27.64 | 49% 42% |
| Offsides | 1.58 0.42–2.74 0.12–3.05 | 2.33 1.23–3.42 0.94–3.71 | 3.91 1.66–6.16 1.07–6.75 | 26% 20% 54% |
| Yellow cards | 1.57 0.52–2.62 0.25–2.89 | 1.56 0.43–2.69 0.14–2.98 | 3.13 0.95–5.30 0.39–5.86 | 38% 24% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.38 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.75 | 89% |
| GK saves | 3.75 2.31–5.19 1.93–5.57 | 2.77 1.21–4.32 0.79–4.75 | 6.52 3.52–9.51 2.71–10.32 | 57% 15% 28% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.