Premier League·Regular Season - 34·
Premier League·Regular Season - 34·Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
25%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.242.83safe0.62–2.560.39–2.101.01–4.65safer0.37–2.810.16–2.320.53–5.13
Shots on target
47%
13%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.694.419.10safe2.83–6.552.67–6.155.50–12.71safer2.34–7.042.20–6.624.54–13.66
Total shots
56%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1912.9127.10safe10.27–18.129.35–16.4719.61–34.59safer9.18–19.218.39–17.4317.56–36.64
Shots in box
58%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction9.878.4918.36safe6.93–12.815.81–11.1712.74–23.99safer6.10–13.645.08–11.9111.17–25.55
Blocked shots
35%
14%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction3.644.187.82safe1.75–5.522.53–5.834.28–11.35safer1.21–6.062.04–6.333.25–12.39
Corners
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.674.7010.37safe3.46–7.882.70–6.706.16–14.58safer2.88–8.462.17–7.235.05–15.69
Possession %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction48.4652.09safe41.67–55.2545.30–58.87safer40.00–56.9243.63–60.54
Passes
41%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction462488950safe395–529421–554816–1083safer377–547404–572780–1119
Pass accuracy %
20%
76%
homeawayprediction67.7673.67safe63.73–71.7969.35–78.00safer62.44–73.0868.04–79.31
Fouls
46%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6710.6121.28safe7.83–13.507.67–13.5615.50–27.06safer7.07–14.266.92–14.3113.99–28.56
Offsides
72%
14%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction3.011.284.29safe1.85–4.170.18–2.372.04–6.54safer1.55–4.480.00–2.661.45–7.13
Yellow cards
29%
22%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.953.43safe0.43–2.530.82–3.081.26–5.61safer0.17–2.800.53–3.370.70–6.17
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
38%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.863.075.93safe1.42–4.301.51–4.622.93–8.92safer1.04–4.681.09–5.052.12–9.73
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.59 0.62–2.56 0.37–2.81 | 1.24 0.39–2.10 0.16–2.32 | 2.83 1.01–4.65 0.53–5.13 | 45% 25% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.69 2.83–6.55 2.34–7.04 | 4.41 2.67–6.15 2.20–6.62 | 9.10 5.50–12.71 4.54–13.66 | 47% 13% 40% |
| Total shots | 14.19 10.27–18.12 9.18–19.21 | 12.91 9.35–16.47 8.39–17.43 | 27.10 19.61–34.59 17.56–36.64 | 56% 37% |
| Shots in box | 9.87 6.93–12.81 6.10–13.64 | 8.49 5.81–11.17 5.08–11.91 | 18.36 12.74–23.99 11.17–25.55 | 58% 33% |
| Blocked shots | 3.64 1.75–5.52 1.21–6.06 | 4.18 2.53–5.83 2.04–6.33 | 7.82 4.28–11.35 3.25–12.39 | 35% 14% 50% |
| Corners | 5.67 3.46–7.88 2.88–8.46 | 4.70 2.70–6.70 2.17–7.23 | 10.37 6.16–14.58 5.05–15.69 | 56% 32% |
| Possession % | 48.46 41.67–55.25 40.00–56.92 | 52.09 45.30–58.87 43.63–60.54 | — | 39% 56% |
| Passes | 462 395–529 377–547 | 488 421–554 404–572 | 950 816–1083 780–1119 | 41% 58% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.76 63.73–71.79 62.44–73.08 | 73.67 69.35–78.00 68.04–79.31 | — | 20% 76% |
| Fouls | 10.67 7.83–13.50 7.07–14.26 | 10.61 7.67–13.56 6.92–14.31 | 21.28 15.50–27.06 13.99–28.56 | 46% 45% |
| Offsides | 3.01 1.85–4.17 1.55–4.48 | 1.28 0.18–2.37 0.00–2.66 | 4.29 2.04–6.54 1.45–7.13 | 72% 14% 13% |
| Yellow cards | 1.48 0.43–2.53 0.17–2.80 | 1.95 0.82–3.08 0.53–3.37 | 3.43 1.26–5.61 0.70–6.17 | 29% 22% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.86 1.42–4.30 1.04–4.68 | 3.07 1.51–4.62 1.09–5.05 | 5.93 2.93–8.92 2.12–9.73 | 38% 17% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+