Premier League·Regular Season - 34·
Premier League·Regular Season - 34·Predicted match statistics
Goals
33%
26%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.261.452.71safe0.29–2.230.60–2.310.89–4.53safer0.04–2.480.37–2.530.41–5.01
Shots on target
31%
13%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction3.754.648.39safe1.89–5.612.90–6.384.79–12.00safer1.40–6.102.43–6.853.83–12.95
Total shots
29%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4613.7825.24safe7.53–15.3810.21–17.3417.75–32.72safer6.44–16.479.25–18.3015.70–34.77
Shots in box
35%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction7.588.6316.21safe4.64–10.525.95–11.3110.58–21.83safer3.81–11.355.21–12.059.02–23.40
Blocked shots
29%
15%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.993.926.91safe1.11–4.872.27–5.573.37–10.44safer0.56–5.411.78–6.072.34–11.48
Corners
34%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction4.585.389.96safe2.37–6.793.38–7.385.75–14.17safer1.79–7.372.85–7.914.64–15.28
Possession %
16%
81%
homeawayprediction42.6658.33safe35.87–49.4551.54–65.11safer34.20–51.1249.87–66.78
Passes
15%
84%
homeawaytotalprediction361483843safe293–428416–549710–977safer275–446399–567674–1013
Pass accuracy %
91%
homeawayprediction62.9474.06safe58.91–66.9769.73–78.38safer57.62–68.2668.42–79.69
Fouls
56%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9910.7422.73safe9.15–14.837.80–13.6916.95–28.51safer8.40–15.587.05–14.4415.45–30.02
Offsides
30%
21%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.552.033.59safe0.39–2.710.94–3.131.33–5.84safer0.09–3.020.65–3.420.75–6.43
Yellow cards
44%
21%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.071.833.90safe1.02–3.120.70–2.961.73–6.08safer0.75–3.390.41–3.251.17–6.64
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.080.17safe0.00–0.250.00–0.270.00–0.52safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.80
GK saves
51%
17%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction2.972.435.40safe1.54–4.410.87–3.982.41–8.39safer1.15–4.800.45–4.411.59–9.20
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.26 0.29–2.23 0.04–2.48 | 1.45 0.60–2.31 0.37–2.53 | 2.71 0.89–4.53 0.41–5.01 | 33% 26% 42% |
| Shots on target | 3.75 1.89–5.61 1.40–6.10 | 4.64 2.90–6.38 2.43–6.85 | 8.39 4.79–12.00 3.83–12.95 | 31% 13% 55% |
| Total shots | 11.46 7.53–15.38 6.44–16.47 | 13.78 10.21–17.34 9.25–18.30 | 25.24 17.75–32.72 15.70–34.77 | 29% 64% |
| Shots in box | 7.58 4.64–10.52 3.81–11.35 | 8.63 5.95–11.31 5.21–12.05 | 16.21 10.58–21.83 9.02–23.40 | 35% 55% |
| Blocked shots | 2.99 1.11–4.87 0.56–5.41 | 3.92 2.27–5.57 1.78–6.07 | 6.91 3.37–10.44 2.34–11.48 | 29% 15% 56% |
| Corners | 4.58 2.37–6.79 1.79–7.37 | 5.38 3.38–7.38 2.85–7.91 | 9.96 5.75–14.17 4.64–15.28 | 34% 54% |
| Possession % | 42.66 35.87–49.45 34.20–51.12 | 58.33 51.54–65.11 49.87–66.78 | — | 16% 81% |
| Passes | 361 293–428 275–446 | 483 416–549 399–567 | 843 710–977 674–1013 | 15% 84% |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.94 58.91–66.97 57.62–68.26 | 74.06 69.73–78.38 68.42–79.69 | — | 91% |
| Fouls | 11.99 9.15–14.83 8.40–15.58 | 10.74 7.80–13.69 7.05–14.44 | 22.73 16.95–28.51 15.45–30.02 | 56% 36% |
| Offsides | 1.55 0.39–2.71 0.09–3.02 | 2.03 0.94–3.13 0.65–3.42 | 3.59 1.33–5.84 0.75–6.43 | 30% 21% 49% |
| Yellow cards | 2.07 1.02–3.12 0.75–3.39 | 1.83 0.70–2.96 0.41–3.25 | 3.90 1.73–6.08 1.17–6.64 | 44% 21% 35% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.97 1.54–4.41 1.15–4.80 | 2.43 0.87–3.98 0.45–4.41 | 5.40 2.41–8.39 1.59–9.20 | 51% 17% 32% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.