Predicted match statistics
Goals
42%
25%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.302.80safe0.54–2.470.44–2.150.98–4.62safer0.29–2.720.21–2.380.50–5.10
Shots on target
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.204.109.31safe3.34–7.072.36–5.845.70–12.91safer2.85–7.561.89–6.314.75–13.87
Total shots
78%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction16.1011.4727.57safe12.17–20.027.91–15.0420.08–35.06safer11.08–21.116.95–15.9918.03–37.11
Shots in box
72%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction10.847.8118.65safe7.90–13.785.12–10.4913.02–24.27safer7.07–14.614.39–11.2211.46–25.84
Blocked shots
56%
13%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.673.698.35safe2.78–6.552.03–5.344.82–11.89safer2.24–7.091.54–5.833.78–12.92
Corners
66%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction6.074.2410.31safe3.85–8.282.24–6.246.10–14.52safer3.28–8.861.71–6.774.99–15.63
Possession %
60%
35%
homeawayprediction52.5047.13safe45.71–59.2940.35–53.92safer44.04–60.9638.68–55.59
Passes
66%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction490439929safe423–557372–505795–1062safer405–575355–523759–1098
Pass accuracy %
58%
37%
homeawayprediction74.2972.18safe70.26–78.3267.85–76.50safer68.97–79.6166.55–77.81
Fouls
65%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction11.489.2620.75safe8.64–14.326.32–12.2114.96–26.53safer7.89–15.085.57–12.9613.46–28.03
Offsides
25%
20%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.532.323.85safe0.37–2.691.22–3.411.60–6.10safer0.07–2.990.94–3.701.01–6.69
Yellow cards
36%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.771.933.71safe0.72–2.820.81–3.061.53–5.89safer0.46–3.090.51–3.350.97–6.44
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.070.17safe0.00–0.260.00–0.260.00–0.52safer0.00–0.410.00–0.390.00–0.80
GK saves
28%
15%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.713.666.37safe1.27–4.152.10–5.213.37–9.36safer0.89–4.531.68–5.642.56–10.17
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.51 0.54–2.47 0.29–2.72 | 1.30 0.44–2.15 0.21–2.38 | 2.80 0.98–4.62 0.50–5.10 | 42% 25% 33% |
| Shots on target | 5.20 3.34–7.07 2.85–7.56 | 4.10 2.36–5.84 1.89–6.31 | 9.31 5.70–12.91 4.75–13.87 | 58% 30% |
| Total shots | 16.10 12.17–20.02 11.08–21.11 | 11.47 7.91–15.04 6.95–15.99 | 27.57 20.08–35.06 18.03–37.11 | 78% 16% |
| Shots in box | 10.84 7.90–13.78 7.07–14.61 | 7.81 5.12–10.49 4.39–11.22 | 18.65 13.02–24.27 11.46–25.84 | 72% 21% |
| Blocked shots | 4.67 2.78–6.55 2.24–7.09 | 3.69 2.03–5.34 1.54–5.83 | 8.35 4.82–11.89 3.78–12.92 | 56% 13% 30% |
| Corners | 6.07 3.85–8.28 3.28–8.86 | 4.24 2.24–6.24 1.71–6.77 | 10.31 6.10–14.52 4.99–15.63 | 66% 23% |
| Possession % | 52.50 45.71–59.29 44.04–60.96 | 47.13 40.35–53.92 38.68–55.59 | — | 60% 35% |
| Passes | 490 423–557 405–575 | 439 372–505 355–523 | 929 795–1062 759–1098 | 66% 33% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.29 70.26–78.32 68.97–79.61 | 72.18 67.85–76.50 66.55–77.81 | — | 58% 37% |
| Fouls | 11.48 8.64–14.32 7.89–15.08 | 9.26 6.32–12.21 5.57–12.96 | 20.75 14.96–26.53 13.46–28.03 | 65% 27% |
| Offsides | 1.53 0.37–2.69 0.07–2.99 | 2.32 1.22–3.41 0.94–3.70 | 3.85 1.60–6.10 1.01–6.69 | 25% 20% 55% |
| Yellow cards | 1.77 0.72–2.82 0.46–3.09 | 1.93 0.81–3.06 0.51–3.35 | 3.71 1.53–5.89 0.97–6.44 | 36% 22% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.71 1.27–4.15 0.89–4.53 | 3.66 2.10–5.21 1.68–5.64 | 6.37 3.37–9.36 2.56–10.17 | 28% 15% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.