Premier League·Regular Season - 34·
Premier League·Regular Season - 34·Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
26%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.082.51safe0.46–2.400.22–1.930.68–4.33safer0.21–2.650.00–2.160.20–4.81
Shots on target
62%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.013.598.60safe3.15–6.871.85–5.334.99–12.20safer2.66–7.361.38–5.804.04–13.16
Total shots
78%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction15.8911.3827.27safe11.96–19.817.82–14.9519.78–34.76safer10.87–20.906.86–15.9117.73–36.81
Shots in box
73%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction10.367.3217.69safe7.42–13.314.64–10.0112.07–23.31safer6.59–14.143.91–10.7410.50–24.88
Blocked shots
61%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.653.337.98safe2.76–6.531.68–4.994.45–11.52safer2.22–7.071.19–5.483.41–12.55
Corners
62%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.934.4210.35safe3.72–8.152.42–6.426.14–14.56safer3.15–8.721.88–6.955.03–15.67
Possession %
32%
63%
homeawayprediction46.5353.34safe39.74–53.3246.55–60.12safer38.07–54.9944.88–61.79
Passes
32%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction390447837safe323–457380–513703–971safer305–476363–531667–1006
Pass accuracy %
24%
72%
homeawayprediction69.0073.94safe64.97–73.0369.62–78.26safer63.68–74.3268.31–79.57
Fouls
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9812.2324.21safe9.14–14.819.29–15.1818.43–29.99safer8.38–15.578.54–15.9316.92–31.50
Offsides
47%
24%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.641.242.88safe0.47–2.800.15–2.340.63–5.13safer0.17–3.100.00–2.630.04–5.72
Yellow cards
35%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.802.053.85safe0.75–2.840.92–3.181.67–6.02safer0.48–3.110.63–3.471.11–6.58
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
30%
17%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.443.165.60safe1.01–3.881.60–4.712.61–8.59safer0.62–4.271.18–5.141.79–9.40
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.43 0.46–2.40 0.21–2.65 | 1.08 0.22–1.93 0.00–2.16 | 2.51 0.68–4.33 0.20–4.81 | 45% 26% 28% |
| Shots on target | 5.01 3.15–6.87 2.66–7.36 | 3.59 1.85–5.33 1.38–5.80 | 8.60 4.99–12.20 4.04–13.16 | 62% 25% |
| Total shots | 15.89 11.96–19.81 10.87–20.90 | 11.38 7.82–14.95 6.86–15.91 | 27.27 19.78–34.76 17.73–36.81 | 78% 17% |
| Shots in box | 10.36 7.42–13.31 6.59–14.14 | 7.32 4.64–10.01 3.91–10.74 | 17.69 12.07–23.31 10.50–24.88 | 73% 20% |
| Blocked shots | 4.65 2.76–6.53 2.22–7.07 | 3.33 1.68–4.99 1.19–5.48 | 7.98 4.45–11.52 3.41–12.55 | 61% 26% |
| Corners | 5.93 3.72–8.15 3.15–8.72 | 4.42 2.42–6.42 1.88–6.95 | 10.35 6.14–14.56 5.03–15.67 | 62% 26% |
| Possession % | 46.53 39.74–53.32 38.07–54.99 | 53.34 46.55–60.12 44.88–61.79 | — | 32% 63% |
| Passes | 390 323–457 305–476 | 447 380–513 363–531 | 837 703–971 667–1006 | 32% 68% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.00 64.97–73.03 63.68–74.32 | 73.94 69.62–78.26 68.31–79.57 | — | 24% 72% |
| Fouls | 11.98 9.14–14.81 8.38–15.57 | 12.23 9.29–15.18 8.54–15.93 | 24.21 18.43–29.99 16.92–31.50 | 44% 48% |
| Offsides | 1.64 0.47–2.80 0.17–3.10 | 1.24 0.15–2.34 0.00–2.63 | 2.88 0.63–5.13 0.04–5.72 | 47% 24% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.80 0.75–2.84 0.48–3.11 | 2.05 0.92–3.18 0.63–3.47 | 3.85 1.67–6.02 1.11–6.58 | 35% 21% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.44 1.01–3.88 0.62–4.27 | 3.16 1.60–4.71 1.18–5.14 | 5.60 2.61–8.59 1.79–9.40 | 30% 17% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.