Predicted match statistics
Goals
36%
25%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.422.80safe0.40–2.340.57–2.280.98–4.62safer0.15–2.590.34–2.510.50–5.10
Shots on target
38%
13%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.264.648.91safe2.40–6.132.90–6.395.30–12.51safer1.91–6.622.43–6.854.35–13.47
Total shots
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1413.6426.78safe9.22–17.0710.08–17.2019.30–34.27safer8.13–18.169.12–18.1617.24–36.32
Shots in box
33%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction7.829.1716.99safe4.87–10.766.49–11.8511.36–22.61safer4.04–11.595.75–12.599.80–24.18
Blocked shots
41%
15%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.653.777.42safe1.77–5.532.11–5.423.88–10.95safer1.22–6.081.62–5.912.85–11.99
Corners
44%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction5.235.2510.48safe3.02–7.453.25–7.256.27–14.69safer2.45–8.022.71–7.785.16–15.80
Possession %
51%
44%
homeawayprediction50.9749.50safe44.18–57.7642.71–56.28safer42.51–59.4341.04–57.95
Passes
59%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction432405837safe365–500339–472704–971safer347–518321–489668–1007
Pass accuracy %
25%
71%
homeawayprediction61.6266.33safe57.59–65.6562.01–70.66safer56.30–66.9460.70–71.96
Fouls
60%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4111.6625.07safe10.58–16.258.72–14.6119.29–30.86safer9.82–17.017.97–15.3517.79–32.36
Offsides
56%
19%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction2.491.684.17safe1.33–3.650.59–2.771.91–6.42safer1.03–3.950.30–3.061.33–7.01
Yellow cards
40%
20%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.082.054.13safe1.03–3.130.92–3.181.95–6.30safer0.76–3.390.63–3.471.39–6.86
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.100.20safe0.00–0.260.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.410.00–0.420.00–0.83
GK saves
48%
17%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.142.755.89safe1.71–4.581.19–4.312.90–8.89safer1.32–4.970.77–4.732.09–9.70
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.37 0.40–2.34 0.15–2.59 | 1.42 0.57–2.28 0.34–2.51 | 2.80 0.98–4.62 0.50–5.10 | 36% 25% 39% |
| Shots on target | 4.26 2.40–6.13 1.91–6.62 | 4.64 2.90–6.39 2.43–6.85 | 8.91 5.30–12.51 4.35–13.47 | 38% 13% 48% |
| Total shots | 13.14 9.22–17.07 8.13–18.16 | 13.64 10.08–17.20 9.12–18.16 | 26.78 19.30–34.27 17.24–36.32 | 42% 50% |
| Shots in box | 7.82 4.87–10.76 4.04–11.59 | 9.17 6.49–11.85 5.75–12.59 | 16.99 11.36–22.61 9.80–24.18 | 33% 58% |
| Blocked shots | 3.65 1.77–5.53 1.22–6.08 | 3.77 2.11–5.42 1.62–5.91 | 7.42 3.88–10.95 2.85–11.99 | 41% 15% 44% |
| Corners | 5.23 3.02–7.45 2.45–8.02 | 5.25 3.25–7.25 2.71–7.78 | 10.48 6.27–14.69 5.16–15.80 | 44% 44% |
| Possession % | 50.97 44.18–57.76 42.51–59.43 | 49.50 42.71–56.28 41.04–57.95 | — | 51% 44% |
| Passes | 432 365–500 347–518 | 405 339–472 321–489 | 837 704–971 668–1007 | 59% 41% |
| Pass accuracy % | 61.62 57.59–65.65 56.30–66.94 | 66.33 62.01–70.66 60.70–71.96 | — | 25% 71% |
| Fouls | 13.41 10.58–16.25 9.82–17.01 | 11.66 8.72–14.61 7.97–15.35 | 25.07 19.29–30.86 17.79–32.36 | 60% 33% |
| Offsides | 2.49 1.33–3.65 1.03–3.95 | 1.68 0.59–2.77 0.30–3.06 | 4.17 1.91–6.42 1.33–7.01 | 56% 19% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 2.08 1.03–3.13 0.76–3.39 | 2.05 0.92–3.18 0.63–3.47 | 4.13 1.95–6.30 1.39–6.86 | 40% 20% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.14 1.71–4.58 1.32–4.97 | 2.75 1.19–4.31 0.77–4.73 | 5.89 2.90–8.89 2.09–9.70 | 48% 17% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.