Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
25%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.352.87safe0.55–2.480.50–2.211.05–4.69safer0.29–2.730.27–2.440.57–5.17
Shots on target
52%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.084.389.45safe3.21–6.942.63–6.125.85–13.06safer2.72–7.432.17–6.584.89–14.01
Total shots
72%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction15.9212.2828.20safe11.99–19.848.71–15.8420.71–35.68safer10.90–20.947.75–16.8018.66–37.73
Shots in box
66%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction10.528.1818.71safe7.58–13.465.50–10.8713.08–24.33safer6.75–14.294.77–11.6011.52–25.90
Blocked shots
51%
13%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.684.108.78safe2.80–6.562.45–5.755.24–12.31safer2.25–7.111.95–6.244.21–13.35
Corners
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.614.379.98safe3.40–7.822.37–6.375.76–14.19safer2.82–8.401.84–6.904.66–15.30
Possession %
49%
47%
homeawayprediction50.4750.03safe43.68–57.2643.25–56.82safer42.01–58.9341.58–58.49
Passes
57%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction491468958safe423–558401–534824–1092safer405–576384–552789–1127
Pass accuracy %
34%
62%
homeawayprediction71.0373.82safe67.00–75.0669.50–78.15safer65.71–76.3568.19–79.46
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8811.9822.86safe8.04–13.729.03–14.9217.08–28.64safer7.29–14.478.29–15.6715.57–30.15
Offsides
39%
23%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.721.703.42safe0.56–2.880.60–2.791.17–5.67safer0.26–3.180.31–3.080.58–6.26
Yellow cards
29%
22%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.451.963.41safe0.40–2.500.83–3.091.23–5.59safer0.13–2.770.54–3.380.68–6.15
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77
GK saves
35%
16%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.953.416.35safe1.51–4.381.85–4.963.36–9.34safer1.12–4.771.42–5.392.55–10.16
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.51 0.55–2.48 0.29–2.73 | 1.35 0.50–2.21 0.27–2.44 | 2.87 1.05–4.69 0.57–5.17 | 41% 25% 34% |
| Shots on target | 5.08 3.21–6.94 2.72–7.43 | 4.38 2.63–6.12 2.17–6.58 | 9.45 5.85–13.06 4.89–14.01 | 52% 35% |
| Total shots | 15.92 11.99–19.84 10.90–20.94 | 12.28 8.71–15.84 7.75–16.80 | 28.20 20.71–35.68 18.66–37.73 | 72% 22% |
| Shots in box | 10.52 7.58–13.46 6.75–14.29 | 8.18 5.50–10.87 4.77–11.60 | 18.71 13.08–24.33 11.52–25.90 | 66% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 4.68 2.80–6.56 2.25–7.11 | 4.10 2.45–5.75 1.95–6.24 | 8.78 5.24–12.31 4.21–13.35 | 51% 13% 36% |
| Corners | 5.61 3.40–7.82 2.82–8.40 | 4.37 2.37–6.37 1.84–6.90 | 9.98 5.76–14.19 4.66–15.30 | 59% 29% |
| Possession % | 50.47 43.68–57.26 42.01–58.93 | 50.03 43.25–56.82 41.58–58.49 | — | 49% 47% |
| Passes | 491 423–558 405–576 | 468 401–534 384–552 | 958 824–1092 789–1127 | 57% 42% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.03 67.00–75.06 65.71–76.35 | 73.82 69.50–78.15 68.19–79.46 | — | 34% 62% |
| Fouls | 10.88 8.04–13.72 7.29–14.47 | 11.98 9.03–14.92 8.29–15.67 | 22.86 17.08–28.64 15.57–30.15 | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.72 0.56–2.88 0.26–3.18 | 1.70 0.60–2.79 0.31–3.08 | 3.42 1.17–5.67 0.58–6.26 | 39% 23% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.45 0.40–2.50 0.13–2.77 | 1.96 0.83–3.09 0.54–3.38 | 3.41 1.23–5.59 0.68–6.15 | 29% 22% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.95 1.51–4.38 1.12–4.77 | 3.41 1.85–4.96 1.42–5.39 | 6.35 3.36–9.34 2.55–10.16 | 35% 16% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.