Premier League·Regular Season - 15·
Premier League·Regular Season - 15·Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
25%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.212.76safe0.58–2.520.36–2.060.94–4.58safer0.33–2.770.13–2.290.46–5.06
Shots on target
53%
13%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.924.179.09safe3.06–6.782.43–5.915.49–12.70safer2.57–7.271.96–6.384.53–13.65
Total shots
63%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2211.9826.20safe10.29–18.148.42–15.5418.71–33.69safer9.20–19.237.46–16.5016.66–35.74
Shots in box
48%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction8.207.8816.08safe5.26–11.145.20–10.5610.45–21.70safer4.43–11.974.46–11.308.89–23.27
Blocked shots
50%
15%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.643.106.74safe1.76–5.521.45–4.753.21–10.28safer1.22–6.070.95–5.242.17–11.31
Corners
49%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction5.104.679.77safe2.88–7.312.67–6.675.56–13.98safer2.31–7.882.14–7.214.45–15.09
Possession %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction50.4849.43safe43.69–57.2742.64–56.21safer42.02–58.9440.97–57.88
Passes
59%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction429402830safe361–496335–468696–964safer343–514318–486661–999
Pass accuracy %
36%
59%
homeawayprediction68.6470.82safe64.61–72.6766.49–75.14safer63.32–73.9765.19–76.45
Fouls
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction15.0314.0829.11safe12.19–17.8611.14–17.0323.33–34.89safer11.43–18.6210.39–17.7721.82–36.40
Offsides
21%
18%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction1.522.584.11safe0.36–2.681.49–3.681.85–6.36safer0.06–2.981.20–3.961.26–6.95
Yellow cards
34%
19%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.172.574.73safe1.12–3.211.44–3.702.56–6.91safer0.85–3.481.15–3.992.00–7.47
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.120.21safe0.00–0.250.00–0.310.00–0.56safer0.00–0.400.00–0.440.00–0.84
GK saves
37%
16%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.953.236.18safe1.51–4.381.68–4.793.19–9.17safer1.12–4.771.25–5.222.38–9.99
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.55 0.58–2.52 0.33–2.77 | 1.21 0.36–2.06 0.13–2.29 | 2.76 0.94–4.58 0.46–5.06 | 45% 25% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.92 3.06–6.78 2.57–7.27 | 4.17 2.43–5.91 1.96–6.38 | 9.09 5.49–12.70 4.53–13.65 | 53% 13% 34% |
| Total shots | 14.22 10.29–18.14 9.20–19.23 | 11.98 8.42–15.54 7.46–16.50 | 26.20 18.71–33.69 16.66–35.74 | 63% 30% |
| Shots in box | 8.20 5.26–11.14 4.43–11.97 | 7.88 5.20–10.56 4.46–11.30 | 16.08 10.45–21.70 8.89–23.27 | 48% 42% |
| Blocked shots | 3.64 1.76–5.52 1.22–6.07 | 3.10 1.45–4.75 0.95–5.24 | 6.74 3.21–10.28 2.17–11.31 | 50% 15% 34% |
| Corners | 5.10 2.88–7.31 2.31–7.88 | 4.67 2.67–6.67 2.14–7.21 | 9.77 5.56–13.98 4.45–15.09 | 49% 38% |
| Possession % | 50.48 43.69–57.27 42.02–58.94 | 49.43 42.64–56.21 40.97–57.88 | — | 50% 45% |
| Passes | 429 361–496 343–514 | 402 335–468 318–486 | 830 696–964 661–999 | 59% 41% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.64 64.61–72.67 63.32–73.97 | 70.82 66.49–75.14 65.19–76.45 | — | 36% 59% |
| Fouls | 15.03 12.19–17.86 11.43–18.62 | 14.08 11.14–17.03 10.39–17.77 | 29.11 23.33–34.89 21.82–36.40 | 53% 39% |
| Offsides | 1.52 0.36–2.68 0.06–2.98 | 2.58 1.49–3.68 1.20–3.96 | 4.11 1.85–6.36 1.26–6.95 | 21% 18% 60% |
| Yellow cards | 2.17 1.12–3.21 0.85–3.48 | 2.57 1.44–3.70 1.15–3.99 | 4.73 2.56–6.91 2.00–7.47 | 34% 19% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.95 1.51–4.38 1.12–4.77 | 3.23 1.68–4.79 1.25–5.22 | 6.18 3.19–9.17 2.38–9.99 | 37% 16% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.