Premier League·Regular Season - 15·
Premier League·Regular Season - 15·Predicted match statistics
Goals
25%
27%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction0.941.442.38safe0.00–1.910.58–2.290.55–4.20safer0.00–2.160.35–2.520.07–4.68
Shots on target
29%
13%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction3.514.578.07safe1.64–5.372.83–6.314.47–11.68safer1.15–5.862.36–6.783.51–12.63
Total shots
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7812.2022.98safe6.86–14.718.63–15.7615.49–30.47safer5.77–15.807.67–16.7213.44–32.52
Shots in box
28%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction6.197.8514.04safe3.25–9.135.17–10.538.41–19.66safer2.42–9.964.43–11.276.85–21.23
Blocked shots
36%
16%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.883.266.14safe1.00–4.761.61–4.912.60–9.67safer0.45–5.301.11–5.401.57–10.71
Corners
42%
14%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.414.548.95safe2.20–6.632.54–6.544.74–13.16safer1.63–7.202.00–7.073.63–14.27
Possession %
85%
homeawayprediction40.8459.61safe34.05–47.6352.82–66.39safer32.38–49.3051.15–68.07
Passes
90%
homeawaytotalprediction321473794safe254–388407–540661–928safer236–407389–557625–964
Pass accuracy %
96%
homeawayprediction59.9574.24safe55.92–63.9869.91–78.56safer54.63–65.2768.60–79.87
Fouls
64%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction16.5214.0730.59safe13.68–19.3611.13–17.0224.81–36.37safer12.93–20.1110.38–17.7723.31–37.88
Offsides
38%
22%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.831.903.73safe0.67–2.990.80–2.991.47–5.98safer0.37–3.290.52–3.280.88–6.57
Yellow cards
41%
18%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.602.615.20safe1.55–3.651.48–3.733.03–7.38safer1.28–3.911.19–4.032.47–7.94
Red cards
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.150.140.28safe0.00–0.310.00–0.320.00–0.63safer0.00–0.460.00–0.460.00–0.91
GK saves
48%
17%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.912.515.42safe1.47–4.350.95–4.062.43–8.41safer1.09–4.730.53–4.491.61–9.22
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.94 0.00–1.91 0.00–2.16 | 1.44 0.58–2.29 0.35–2.52 | 2.38 0.55–4.20 0.07–4.68 | 25% 27% 49% |
| Shots on target | 3.51 1.64–5.37 1.15–5.86 | 4.57 2.83–6.31 2.36–6.78 | 8.07 4.47–11.68 3.51–12.63 | 29% 13% 58% |
| Total shots | 10.78 6.86–14.71 5.77–15.80 | 12.20 8.63–15.76 7.67–16.72 | 22.98 15.49–30.47 13.44–32.52 | 34% 58% |
| Shots in box | 6.19 3.25–9.13 2.42–9.96 | 7.85 5.17–10.53 4.43–11.27 | 14.04 8.41–19.66 6.85–21.23 | 28% 62% |
| Blocked shots | 2.88 1.00–4.76 0.45–5.30 | 3.26 1.61–4.91 1.11–5.40 | 6.14 2.60–9.67 1.57–10.71 | 36% 16% 48% |
| Corners | 4.41 2.20–6.63 1.63–7.20 | 4.54 2.54–6.54 2.00–7.07 | 8.95 4.74–13.16 3.63–14.27 | 42% 14% 45% |
| Possession % | 40.84 34.05–47.63 32.38–49.30 | 59.61 52.82–66.39 51.15–68.07 | — | 85% |
| Passes | 321 254–388 236–407 | 473 407–540 389–557 | 794 661–928 625–964 | 90% |
| Pass accuracy % | 59.95 55.92–63.98 54.63–65.27 | 74.24 69.91–78.56 68.60–79.87 | — | 96% |
| Fouls | 16.52 13.68–19.36 12.93–20.11 | 14.07 11.13–17.02 10.38–17.77 | 30.59 24.81–36.37 23.31–37.88 | 64% 30% |
| Offsides | 1.83 0.67–2.99 0.37–3.29 | 1.90 0.80–2.99 0.52–3.28 | 3.73 1.47–5.98 0.88–6.57 | 38% 22% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 2.60 1.55–3.65 1.28–3.91 | 2.61 1.48–3.73 1.19–4.03 | 5.20 3.03–7.38 2.47–7.94 | 41% 18% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.15 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.46 | 0.14 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 0.28 0.00–0.63 0.00–0.91 | 77% |
| GK saves | 2.91 1.47–4.35 1.09–4.73 | 2.51 0.95–4.06 0.53–4.49 | 5.42 2.43–8.41 1.61–9.22 | 48% 17% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.