Premier League·Regular Season - 15·
Premier League·Regular Season - 15·Predicted match statistics
Goals
38%
25%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.421.412.83safe0.45–2.390.56–2.271.01–4.66safer0.20–2.640.33–2.490.53–5.14
Shots on target
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.034.089.11safe3.16–6.892.34–5.835.50–12.71safer2.67–7.381.88–6.294.55–13.67
Total shots
65%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6111.2224.83safe9.69–17.547.66–14.7817.34–32.32safer8.60–18.636.70–15.7415.29–34.37
Shots in box
52%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction8.387.6716.05safe5.44–11.324.99–10.3510.42–21.67safer4.61–12.154.25–11.098.86–23.24
Blocked shots
57%
15%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction3.632.676.29safe1.75–5.511.01–4.322.76–9.83safer1.20–6.050.52–4.811.72–10.86
Corners
53%
13%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.754.028.77safe2.54–6.962.02–6.024.56–12.99safer1.96–7.541.49–6.563.45–14.09
Possession %
40%
56%
homeawayprediction48.3251.78safe41.53–55.1144.99–58.56safer39.86–56.7843.32–60.23
Passes
37%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction404443847safe337–471377–510713–981safer319–489359–527678–1016
Pass accuracy %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction70.4674.74safe66.43–74.4970.42–79.06safer65.14–75.7869.11–80.37
Fouls
39%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4614.4727.93safe10.62–16.3011.52–17.4122.15–33.71safer9.87–17.0510.78–18.1620.64–35.21
Offsides
18%
14%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction1.983.615.59safe0.82–3.152.51–4.703.34–7.84safer0.52–3.452.23–4.992.75–8.43
Yellow cards
33%
18%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.292.725.01safe1.24–3.341.59–3.852.83–7.19safer0.97–3.601.30–4.142.28–7.75
Red cards
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.150.27safe0.00–0.290.00–0.330.00–0.62safer0.00–0.440.00–0.470.00–0.90
GK saves
34%
17%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.693.185.87safe1.26–4.131.63–4.742.88–8.87safer0.87–4.511.20–5.162.07–9.68
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.42 0.45–2.39 0.20–2.64 | 1.41 0.56–2.27 0.33–2.49 | 2.83 1.01–4.66 0.53–5.14 | 38% 25% 37% |
| Shots on target | 5.03 3.16–6.89 2.67–7.38 | 4.08 2.34–5.83 1.88–6.29 | 9.11 5.50–12.71 4.55–13.67 | 56% 32% |
| Total shots | 13.61 9.69–17.54 8.60–18.63 | 11.22 7.66–14.78 6.70–15.74 | 24.83 17.34–32.32 15.29–34.37 | 65% 28% |
| Shots in box | 8.38 5.44–11.32 4.61–12.15 | 7.67 4.99–10.35 4.25–11.09 | 16.05 10.42–21.67 8.86–23.24 | 52% 38% |
| Blocked shots | 3.63 1.75–5.51 1.20–6.05 | 2.67 1.01–4.32 0.52–4.81 | 6.29 2.76–9.83 1.72–10.86 | 57% 15% 28% |
| Corners | 4.75 2.54–6.96 1.96–7.54 | 4.02 2.02–6.02 1.49–6.56 | 8.77 4.56–12.99 3.45–14.09 | 53% 13% 34% |
| Possession % | 48.32 41.53–55.11 39.86–56.78 | 51.78 44.99–58.56 43.32–60.23 | — | 40% 56% |
| Passes | 404 337–471 319–489 | 443 377–510 359–527 | 847 713–981 678–1016 | 37% 63% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.46 66.43–74.49 65.14–75.78 | 74.74 70.42–79.06 69.11–80.37 | — | 27% 69% |
| Fouls | 13.46 10.62–16.30 9.87–17.05 | 14.47 11.52–17.41 10.78–18.16 | 27.93 22.15–33.71 20.64–35.21 | 39% 54% |
| Offsides | 1.98 0.82–3.15 0.52–3.45 | 3.61 2.51–4.70 2.23–4.99 | 5.59 3.34–7.84 2.75–8.43 | 18% 14% 68% |
| Yellow cards | 2.29 1.24–3.34 0.97–3.60 | 2.72 1.59–3.85 1.30–4.14 | 5.01 2.83–7.19 2.28–7.75 | 33% 18% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.15 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.47 | 0.27 0.00–0.62 0.00–0.90 | 78% |
| GK saves | 2.69 1.26–4.13 0.87–4.51 | 3.18 1.63–4.74 1.20–5.16 | 5.87 2.88–8.87 2.07–9.68 | 34% 17% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+