Premier League·Regular Season - 15·
Premier League·Regular Season - 15·Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
28%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.221.112.33safe0.25–2.190.25–1.960.50–4.15safer0.00–2.440.03–2.190.02–4.63
Shots on target
55%
14%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.583.748.32safe2.72–6.442.00–5.494.72–11.93safer2.23–6.931.53–5.953.76–12.88
Total shots
68%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8510.9524.80safe9.92–17.777.39–14.5217.31–32.29safer8.83–18.866.43–15.4815.26–34.34
Shots in box
65%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction8.746.7315.47safe5.80–11.684.05–9.419.85–21.10safer4.97–12.513.31–10.158.28–22.66
Blocked shots
48%
16%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.272.876.14safe1.39–5.151.22–4.522.60–9.68safer0.84–5.700.73–5.021.57–10.71
Corners
57%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.983.958.93safe2.77–7.191.95–5.954.72–13.15safer2.19–7.771.42–6.493.61–14.25
Possession %
36%
60%
homeawayprediction47.7452.81safe40.95–54.5346.02–59.59safer39.28–56.2044.35–61.27
Passes
36%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction381424805safe313–448358–491671–938safer295–466340–508635–974
Pass accuracy %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction62.9166.93safe58.88–66.9462.60–71.25safer57.59–68.2361.29–72.56
Fouls
54%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction15.7814.7630.54safe12.94–18.6111.81–17.7024.75–36.32safer12.18–19.3711.07–18.4523.25–37.82
Offsides
57%
21%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction2.031.193.22safe0.87–3.190.10–2.280.96–5.47safer0.56–3.490.00–2.570.37–6.06
Yellow cards
39%
17%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.712.835.54safe1.66–3.761.70–3.963.37–7.72safer1.40–4.031.41–4.252.81–8.28
Red cards
75%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.180.32safe0.00–0.300.00–0.370.00–0.66safer0.00–0.450.00–0.500.00–0.95
GK saves
31%
16%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.583.285.86safe1.14–4.011.73–4.842.87–8.85safer0.75–4.401.30–5.262.06–9.67
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.22 0.25–2.19 0.00–2.44 | 1.11 0.25–1.96 0.03–2.19 | 2.33 0.50–4.15 0.02–4.63 | 39% 28% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.58 2.72–6.44 2.23–6.93 | 3.74 2.00–5.49 1.53–5.95 | 8.32 4.72–11.93 3.76–12.88 | 55% 14% 32% |
| Total shots | 13.85 9.92–17.77 8.83–18.86 | 10.95 7.39–14.52 6.43–15.48 | 24.80 17.31–32.29 15.26–34.34 | 68% 25% |
| Shots in box | 8.74 5.80–11.68 4.97–12.51 | 6.73 4.05–9.41 3.31–10.15 | 15.47 9.85–21.10 8.28–22.66 | 65% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 3.27 1.39–5.15 0.84–5.70 | 2.87 1.22–4.52 0.73–5.02 | 6.14 2.60–9.68 1.57–10.71 | 48% 16% 36% |
| Corners | 4.98 2.77–7.19 2.19–7.77 | 3.95 1.95–5.95 1.42–6.49 | 8.93 4.72–13.15 3.61–14.25 | 57% 30% |
| Possession % | 47.74 40.95–54.53 39.28–56.20 | 52.81 46.02–59.59 44.35–61.27 | — | 36% 60% |
| Passes | 381 313–448 295–466 | 424 358–491 340–508 | 805 671–938 635–974 | 36% 64% |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.91 58.88–66.94 57.59–68.23 | 66.93 62.60–71.25 61.29–72.56 | — | 28% 68% |
| Fouls | 15.78 12.94–18.61 12.18–19.37 | 14.76 11.81–17.70 11.07–18.45 | 30.54 24.75–36.32 23.25–37.82 | 54% 39% |
| Offsides | 2.03 0.87–3.19 0.56–3.49 | 1.19 0.10–2.28 0.00–2.57 | 3.22 0.96–5.47 0.37–6.06 | 57% 21% 22% |
| Yellow cards | 2.71 1.66–3.76 1.40–4.03 | 2.83 1.70–3.96 1.41–4.25 | 5.54 3.37–7.72 2.81–8.28 | 39% 17% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.18 0.00–0.37 0.00–0.50 | 0.32 0.00–0.66 0.00–0.95 | 75% 15% |
| GK saves | 2.58 1.14–4.01 0.75–4.40 | 3.28 1.73–4.84 1.30–5.26 | 5.86 2.87–8.85 2.06–9.67 | 31% 16% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.