Premier League·Regular Season - 15·
Premier League·Regular Season - 15·Predicted match statistics
Goals
30%
28%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.041.302.34safe0.07–2.010.44–2.150.51–4.16safer0.00–2.260.22–2.380.03–4.64
Shots on target
38%
14%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction3.844.178.01safe1.98–5.702.43–5.914.41–11.62safer1.49–6.191.96–6.383.45–12.57
Total shots
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2111.5623.78safe8.29–16.148.00–15.1316.29–31.26safer7.20–17.237.04–16.0914.24–33.31
Shots in box
39%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction7.187.7014.88safe4.24–10.125.02–10.389.26–20.50safer3.41–10.954.28–11.127.69–22.07
Blocked shots
40%
17%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.953.066.01safe1.07–4.831.41–4.712.48–9.55safer0.53–5.380.91–5.201.44–10.58
Corners
37%
13%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.444.969.41safe2.23–6.662.96–6.965.19–13.62safer1.66–7.232.43–7.504.09–14.73
Possession %
41%
55%
homeawayprediction48.8151.84safe42.02–55.6045.06–58.63safer40.35–57.2743.39–60.30
Passes
51%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction351348699safe284–418282–415566–833safer266–437264–432530–869
Pass accuracy %
18%
78%
homeawayprediction57.6964.21safe53.66–61.7259.89–68.53safer52.37–63.0158.58–69.84
Fouls
40%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3715.2929.66safe11.53–17.2112.35–18.2423.88–35.45safer10.78–17.9611.60–18.9922.38–36.95
Offsides
36%
22%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.823.52safe0.54–2.860.73–2.921.27–5.77safer0.24–3.160.44–3.200.68–6.36
Yellow cards
34%
17%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.452.905.35safe1.40–3.501.78–4.033.18–7.53safer1.14–3.771.48–4.322.62–8.09
Red cards
76%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.180.30safe0.00–0.280.00–0.370.00–0.65safer0.00–0.430.00–0.500.00–0.93
GK saves
42%
18%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.682.655.33safe1.25–4.121.09–4.212.34–8.32safer0.86–4.500.67–4.631.53–9.14
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.04 0.07–2.01 0.00–2.26 | 1.30 0.44–2.15 0.22–2.38 | 2.34 0.51–4.16 0.03–4.64 | 30% 28% 43% |
| Shots on target | 3.84 1.98–5.70 1.49–6.19 | 4.17 2.43–5.91 1.96–6.38 | 8.01 4.41–11.62 3.45–12.57 | 38% 14% 47% |
| Total shots | 12.21 8.29–16.14 7.20–17.23 | 11.56 8.00–15.13 7.04–16.09 | 23.78 16.29–31.26 14.24–33.31 | 51% 41% |
| Shots in box | 7.18 4.24–10.12 3.41–10.95 | 7.70 5.02–10.38 4.28–11.12 | 14.88 9.26–20.50 7.69–22.07 | 39% 50% |
| Blocked shots | 2.95 1.07–4.83 0.53–5.38 | 3.06 1.41–4.71 0.91–5.20 | 6.01 2.48–9.55 1.44–10.58 | 40% 17% 43% |
| Corners | 4.44 2.23–6.66 1.66–7.23 | 4.96 2.96–6.96 2.43–7.50 | 9.41 5.19–13.62 4.09–14.73 | 37% 13% 50% |
| Possession % | 48.81 42.02–55.60 40.35–57.27 | 51.84 45.06–58.63 43.39–60.30 | — | 41% 55% |
| Passes | 351 284–418 266–437 | 348 282–415 264–432 | 699 566–833 530–869 | 51% 49% |
| Pass accuracy % | 57.69 53.66–61.72 52.37–63.01 | 64.21 59.89–68.53 58.58–69.84 | — | 18% 78% |
| Fouls | 14.37 11.53–17.21 10.78–17.96 | 15.29 12.35–18.24 11.60–18.99 | 29.66 23.88–35.45 22.38–36.95 | 40% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.70 0.54–2.86 0.24–3.16 | 1.82 0.73–2.92 0.44–3.20 | 3.52 1.27–5.77 0.68–6.36 | 36% 22% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 2.45 1.40–3.50 1.14–3.77 | 2.90 1.78–4.03 1.48–4.32 | 5.35 3.18–7.53 2.62–8.09 | 34% 17% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.18 0.00–0.37 0.00–0.50 | 0.30 0.00–0.65 0.00–0.93 | 76% 15% |
| GK saves | 2.68 1.25–4.12 0.86–4.50 | 2.65 1.09–4.21 0.67–4.63 | 5.33 2.34–8.32 1.53–9.14 | 42% 18% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+